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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 22, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 25-25-1, -4.9 units
- Sides: 19-16, -4.13 units
- Totals: 5-9-1, -2.47 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
- Notes: We managed to bounce back yesterday, nailing both of our plays. The Mariners got hit with the "four-run top of the first" curse, and the Red Sox were able to come back and get the win. Let's hope to carries over into today's slate.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL +142
TB: Corey Kluber | BAL: Spenser Watkins
I'll head to Baltimore for our first play of the day. The Rays and Orioles will close out their weekend series, and the Rays will send Corey Kluber to the mound. Kluber comes into this one 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA. He does bring in an xFIP of 3.40 into this game, a sign that positive regression is coming. My model gives Kluber a projected 3.50 xFIP in this showdown. He'll take on an Orioles lineup that projects a .396 wOBA + ISO and just a 29.2% hard contact rate. Kluber has led his team to victory in five of his last six starts against Baltimore, including a win on April 10, tossing 4.2 scoreless innings and striking out five.
The Orioles will send Spenser Watkins to the mound, who comes into this one 0-1 with a 5.10 ERA. He's due for some regression, given his 5.76 xFIP. I have him projected for a 5.51 xFIP in this matchup against the Rays, who come into this one with a projected .538 wOBA + ISO and 32.67% hard contact rate. The Rays have a sizeable advantage both offensively and in regards to starting pitching in this one.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Rays at -168, or 62.69% implied odds. My model gives the Rays a 68.55% chance of winning this game, so we're getting some excellent value here. I feel like this line is only as low as it is due to the Rays losing two of Kluber's last three starts; however, that would ignore the fact he pitched extremely well in Detriot on Monday, tossing six innings and allowing two runs while striking out eight. The Orioles don't necessarily have strong indicators either, losing six straight of Watkins' home starts where the total is set between 9 and 10.5. The Rays have also won 12 of their last 14 in Baltimore. I'll back the road favorite in this one.
Pick: Rays Money Line (-168) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA -112
ATL: Ian Anderson | MIA: Sandy Alcantara
We'll head to Miami for our second game of the day, where I'll be looking at a first inning under, or NRFI. The Braves will send Ian Anderson to the mound, who's bounced back after a relatively slow start to the season. Anderson comes into this one with a solid track record this season in the first inning, tossing a clean opening frame in each of his four starts away from home on the year, and six of seven total. This includes a start against the Marlins on April 23.
The Marlins will send Sandy Alcantara to the mound. Alcantara has had a bit of an up and down season thus far but has been heating up of late, tossing 15 innings in his last two starts while allowing just two runs. He has struggled a touch in the opening frame, keeping opponents off the board in just two of four home starts, and five of eight starts overall. Nevertheless, he's pitched well against the Braves recently, allowing just one earned run over his last 14 innings in his last two starts against Atlanta.
Both of these teams have gone scoreless in the first inning in nine of their last 11 games, and neither offense has been keen on putting up early runs. Over the course of the season, the Braves have scored in just three of 19 first innings on the road, and in just nine of 40 games overall. On the other hand, the Marlins have been held scoreless in all but four of 21 games at home this series, and six of 38 games overall. My model gives the NRFI a 59.63% chance of hitting today, while FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us odds of -120, or 54.55% implied odds. Sundays always seem to get weird, but I really like the value on these plays.
Pick: NRFI (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Thursday!
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