RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday, April 4th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/4/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have games starting at staggered times between 7:00 pm Eastern and 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Jacob Markstrom - DK $7.9K|| FD $7.4K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
This is a pretty big game as these teams are in first and second place in the division. Calgary is favored to win and Markstrom is one of the cheaper goalie options that is favored to win. What I especially like about this pick is that Los Angeles shoots the puck, so Markstrom should get a bunch of saves. The Kings are No. 5 in shot attempts per game. Some of the other expensive goalies are going against teams with low shot totals such as Saint Louis vs. Arizona (last in shots per game), and Boston vs. Columbus (No. 21 in shot attempts per game).
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Husso (DK $8.5K || FD $7.8K), Ullmark (DK $8.2K || FD $8.0K), Vasilevskiy (DK $7.8K || FD $8.5K - GPP), Petersen (DK $7.5K || FD $7.6K - GPP). If playing in a large field tournament because of the small slate, any goalie is playable and should be the last position to fill in after completing your stacks.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Patrice Bergeron- DK $7.2K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Columbus Bluejackets
This comes down to a few simple things. Columbus is No. 2 in shots allowed per game, and Boston is No. 3 in shots per game. There will be Boston recommendations throughout this article. Patrice Bergeron has 52 points (18 goals, 34 assists) in 60 games, averaging 3.97 shots on goal per game. He has 10 points in his last seven games. They just played Columbus on Saturday and Bergeron had two assists and four shots on goal. He should have another good game tonight.
Brayden Schenn- DK $4.4K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Brayden Schenn has 47 points (19 goals, 28 assists) in 52 games played. He averages just 1.80 shots on goal per game but he skates on the second line and the first power-play unit. O'Reilly, Schenn, and Thomas more or less are the same for fantasy purposes and price-wise as well. O'Reilly and Schenn are on the first power play and Thomas is on the second power play. Arizona allows the most shots on goal per game and has the No. 30 penalty kill (Saint Louis' Power Play is No. 3).
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matthews (DK $9.6K || FD $10.3K - GPP), Point(DK $6.4K || FD $8.0K), Kopitar (DK $5.4K || FD $5.9K), Danault (DK $4.8K || FD $5.2K), Thomas (DK $4.3K || FD $5.2K), Coyle (DK $3.4K || FD $4.8K).
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
David Pastrnak - DK $8.0K|| FD $8.8K
Opponent - Columbus Bluejackets
As said before, Boston is in a good spot here. Columbus allows the second-most shots on goal and Pastrnak shoots on average 4.44 shots on goal per game. When they played Columbus on Saturday, Pastrnak had seven shots on goal with zero goals and zero assists. My feeling is that if he gets that many shots on goal again, he will get a goal or two here.
Vladimir Tarasenko- DK $6.4K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Vladimir Tarasenko is a player I tend to play a lot but do not talk about much. He has 59 points (23 goals, 36 assists) in 61 games played. He averages 3.13 shots on goal per game. Also, he is on the first power-play unit for the Blues, and as stated before the mismatch between the Blues' Power Play and the Coyotes' Penalty Kill is large.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kucherov (DK $7.8K || FD $9.2K), Marchand (DK $7.5K || FD $9.1K), Stamkos (DK $7.0K || FD $8.6K), Perron (DK $5.9K || FD $6.4K), Buchnevich (DK $5.6K || FD $6.0K), Hall (DK $5.1K || FD $5.8K), Killorn (DK $3.7K || FD $5.8K), DeBrusk (DK $3.6K || FD $5.4K), Saad (DK $3.3K || FD $4.6K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Victor Hedman - DK $6.7K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
Victor Hedman is a jack of all trades from the Defenseman position. He has 66 points (19 goals, 47 assists) in 68 games played, averages 2.66 shots on goal per game, and 1.53 blocked shots per game. He is on the top Power Play unit as well. It is hard to predict a ceiling game from Hedman going against a strong opponent in Toronto, but because he does a little bit of everything he is the top spend-up option at defense tonight.
Colton Parayko- DK $4.8K || FD $4.9K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Colton Parayko is a recommendation due to his price being under $5K on both sites. Parayko has 27 points (6 goals, 21 assists) in 27 games played. He averages 1.76 shots on goal and 2.24 blocked shots per game. On DraftKings, he is a threat to go over the three blocked shots bonus almost every game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McAvoy (DK $5.8K || FD $6.4K), Rielly (DK $5.5K || FD $6.3K), Sergachev (DK $4.6K || FD $4.6K), Faulk (DK $4.5K || FD $4.9K - GPP), Tanev (DK $3.3K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in. On a four-game slate, if playing in a large field GPP, you are going to need something special to happen in order to ship it without being duplicated. You will have to do something unexpected such as stacking either the Blue Jackets or Coyotes and/or roster their goalies as well.
Boston and Saint Louis are implied in the four-goal range. Any lineups that have stacks of the top two lines from these teams and/or the top power-play from these teams will need to get different somewhere else such as getting leverage at goalie, or finding a filler stack nobody is on that hits, and also likely leaving money on the table.
Some other stacks I like:
Calgary 1/PP1: Calgary is No. 9 in Power Play Percentage (23.8%) while the Kings are No. 23 in penalty kill percentage (76.3%). In addition, Calgary's top line is the forward combination with the most goals scored on the season (60). The risk here is that the Kings are No. 29 with just 3.31 penalties committed per game and allow the fewest shots against them per game (28.62). One would need an outlier performance from Los Angeles here in order to have this hit.
Los Angeles 2: I am always onto Los Angeles 2. This forward combination has scored the same number of goals as Boston 2 (and tied for No. 8 overall) with 24 goals scored. Boston 2 will surely be more popular than Los Angeles 2, so a pivot to an equally well-performing line makes sense here.
Tampa Bay 3 and Los Angeles 3: If looking for under 5% filler stacks, these are the two to look at. I would only use in a large field tournament, these are too risky for a single entry tournament with under 1,000 entrants.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
