Tony Gonsolin 2022 Player Outlook: Crowded Rotation Once Again Hurting His Value
3 years agoLos Angeles Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin's role for this upcoming season is worrisome. Yes, the Dodgers lost Max Scherzer to free agency, Dustin May to injury, and can't count on Trevor Bauer to take the mound. However, the team added Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson via free agency, meaning the Dodgers will likely push him to the bullpen to start the season. If given the opportunity, Gonsolin has the talent to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm. Last year he posted a 3.23 ERA and 27.2 K% in 15 appearances (13 starts). Gonsolin's whiff rate was good for the 75th percentile, due in part to his slider (47.8% whiff rate) and splitter (41.4% whiff rate). He can limit hard contact as well, allowing just a .333 xSLG and a 78th percentile hard-hit rate. However, the 27-year-old's 4.54 FIP is concerning, a product of his 14.2 BB%. Although he managed a 4.0 BB% in 2020, that looks like an outlier at this point. Gonsolin finished his debut season with a 9.2 BB%, and his career minor league walk rate was 7.8%. Steamer agrees, hitting him with a 9.6 BB% next season that elevates his projected ERA to 4.74. Regardless, Gonsolin wouldn't be a bad pick for his upside at his ADP of 314 if he had a spot in the rotation. But if he makes less than 20 starts, pitchers such as Zack Greinke (325 ADP) and Yusei Kikuchi (332 ADP) will give fantasy managers more value.