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With the NFL regular season right around the corner, we're quickly approaching our collective due date for fantasy drafts and getting season-long bets placed. Prize Picks has an insane amount of "NFLSZN" prop bets available, with 19 different stat categories on offense, defense, and special teams.
In this article, we're rolling out the playbook for season-long NFL props on PrizePicks using our RotoBaller stat projections (accessible through the 2023 Draft Kit), recent player form, and the ever-shifting betting market.
Prize Picks is running a promotion to start the NFL season as they've set Dak Prescott's passing yard prop at 0.5 yards for Week 1 against the Giants. Combining that free square with five season-long props will give you a leg up on a potential 15x payout. Let's get to it and see where we can corner the market on some props!
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Top Season-Long Prize Picks Props
Jahan Dotson OVER 50.5 Receptions
Get a Flex Play card going with this Jahan Dotson prop as a part of it. Prize Picks is typically on top of updating their lines promptly, but they've dropped the ball to this point. Despite mediocre quarterback play, Dotson flashed in his rookie season, posting 35 catches, 523 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns on 61 targets. He missed five games due to injury and received just three combined targets in his three games upon returning, so there's plenty of opportunity for him to improve based on that alone.
His QB situation should be upgraded with Sam Howell, and he is also now the clear second target in the offense with Curtis Samuel and his 17% target share vacated. Dotson was projecting for 66 receptions (31% over his Prize Picks line) just a few days ago, but then Commanders WR1 Terry McLaurin sprained his toe in a meaningless preseason game. The team's target hog will likely miss Week 1 at the very least, and I'm all over Dotson's season-long line here. DraftKings Sportsbooks has already moved this line to 52.5 receptions, with the over/under at even odds.
Tyreek Hill OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards (Bonus: OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns)
Our premium stat projections at RotoBaller have Tyreek Hill rushing for 80 yards this season. That's 52% higher than his current line on Prize Picks, making it the #1 bet on the board. It's easy to see why. Hill is one of, if not the, most dynamic players in the NFL.
While he's mostly known for his prolific work as a downfield and yards-after-catch receiver, he gets enough chances toting the rock to have confidence in the over on this prop. He has posted at least 58 rushing yards in five of his seven NFL seasons, averaging 7.51 yards per carry over his career. If he sees at least seven carries this season -- as he has in each season he has played -- he will be hitting the over on this prop.
Nico Collins OVER 45.5 Receptions
This one feels like a no-brainer. Nico Collins is the de-facto WR1 on the Texans as Brandin Cooks and his team-leading 17% target share are gone. The Texans should be much more functional this season, too, with #2 pick C.J. Stroud manning the offense and an upstart new head coach in DeMeco Ryans.
Collins hasn't done much over his first two seasons, catching 33 and 37 receptions, but he also hasn't had the opportunity to shine. He'll have his chance this season. He will soar past this prop line if he sees the 75-90 targets he's projecting for. DraftKings Sportsbook also has the line at 45.5 receptions, but the "Over" is the slight favorite at -115.
Lamar Jackson OVER 29.5 Pass + Rush TD
As fellow RotoBaller writer Jackson Sparks noted in his player outlook, Lamar Jackson could finally have his passing ceiling unlocked this year with an infusion of talent added at receiver and a new pass-happy offensive coordinator in Todd Monken. He has missed the mark on this prop in two straight years but also missed five games each season. He put up 33 touchdowns in 2020 and 43 in 2019, so we know he can soar past this number if things break right this year.
Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 40.5 Receptions
You can find many Prize Picks props correlated with Jackson, as Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman all stand to have great seasons if the Ravens' passing game is going to level up. As scary as it is, OBJ's line is my favorite among the Baltimore pass catchers.
40.5 receptions is way too low if Beckham Jr. is going to stay relatively healthy this season. He has played in just 21 games since 2020 but seems to have battled back after two ACL tears, with reports stating that he has "no real limitations" in practice. RotoBaller has the former superstar pegged for 56 receptions, 36% over his current Prize Picks line. DraftKings Sportsbook also has the line at 40.5 receptions, but the "Over" is favorited at -135.
Mike Williams OVER 57.5 Receptions
This offense will continue to be pass-heavy (65% pass rate in 2022). While rookie Quentin Johnston will have an impact, it probably won't be right away. Veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are still in town and figure to continue dominating targets while Johnston, Josh Palmer, and Gerald Everett also mix in.
Williams has collected 63 (2022) and 76 (2021) receptions over the past two years, and I expect him to keep it going this season. DraftKings Sportsbook leans toward the "Over" on 57.5 receptions at -135 odds.
Tyler Higbee OVER 499.5 Receiving Yards
This may seem odd on the surface, but hear me out. First off, Tyler Higbee is always playing. He hasn't played in less than 15 games in a season for his seven-year career. Second, he has mainly been productive when given the opportunity. He has exceeded 520 receiving yards in his last four seasons, which coincides with him becoming a TE1 in the Rams offense in 2019. He averaged 609 receiving yards per season in that stretch, and he led the team with a 21% target share last season.
Lastly, who else is getting the ball outside of Cooper Kupp? Higbee will battle a wholly uninspiring group of Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek, and Puka Nacua for targets. I like the veteran tight end, who has proven he can be effective all day in that competition.
With the Rams having a rough, rebuilding roster following their Super Bowl win, they figure to have to pass as much or more than the 59% pass rate they posted last season. While I love the "Over" here, DraftKings Sportsbook has this line at 500.5 (even odds).
Garrett Wilson OVER 4.5 100+ Receiving Yard Games
Garrett Wilson emerged as one of the league's top wideouts in an electrifying rookie season, with the likes of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Chris Streveler at quarterback. He put up two 100-yard games and four more games with at least 89 yards, meaning he narrowly missed out on having six 100+ receiving-yard games with poor QB play.
He now has future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers throwing him balls, who is notorious for honing in on his number-one wideout and peppering him with valuable targets all season long. This one is a lock.
Justin Herbert OVER 29.5 Passing Touchdowns
In Justin Herbert’s three seasons, he has totaled 31, 38, and 25 touchdowns. A lot went wrong for the Chargers last season, primarily due to injuries, so there's plenty of reason to believe in the former Rookie of the Year to bounce back and exceed his Prize Picks passing touchdown line.
The Chargers' 65% pass rate led the entire league last year, and the only significant change in the offseason was adding another receiving weapon to Herbert's arsenal in rookie Quentin Johnston. I expect them to continue to pace the league in passing volume, which gives Herbert a strong chance at seeing touchdown regression and beating his line on this prop. DraftKings Sportsbook leans toward the "Over" on 29.5 passing touchdowns at -120 odds.
BONUS: Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 550.5 Rushing Yards
Season-Long Prize Picks Flex Play Samples
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