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We're continuing our series of undervalued / overvalued players for fantasy football. In this piece we look around the NFL and provide analysis on more overrated players to avoid in your fantasy football drafts.
2013 Fantasy Football Draft Advice - Overvalued Players
You could say that every single NFL player can be subjected to an undervalued or overvalued status. That status only depends on one thing - where in your draft you take that player. It's never fun to look back during the season and realize you made one or multiple bad picks during the draft. Here's some players to re-think about, and most likely avoid, for your big draft day.
Lamar Miller (RB, MIA): Surprisingly, the second-year running back out of Miami has an average draft position of 59. He's being drafted in front of guys like David Wilson, Darren McFadden and Ryan Mathews. Now, while Miller did average 4.9 yards a carry in his small role for the Dolphins last season, most those carries came at the end of game, when defenses were either tired, or diminished by second-stringers. I don't think the Dolphins will give Miller the amount of chances in the red zone that he will need in order to be a top back. I also think Daniel Thomas will be more involved in the running game than people first thought. During training camp, offensive coordinator Mike Sherman was quoted as saying the two are "neck-and -neck" for the starting job. Miller hasn't done anything in the preseason to make us think otherwise. It's OK to draft Miller to your team this season, but just make sure you don't overpay.
Chris Johnson (RB, TEN): This is more of a warning not to overpay for Johnson again this year. I think a number of us have made that mistake over the past two seasons. Johnson is no longer the touchdown threat he was during his first three seasons in the NFL. He had 34 touchdowns during 2008-2010, but he's slowed down quite a bit in recent years, only putting up a total of 10 touchdowns over his past two campaigns. Johnson is being drafted in front of guys like Frank Gore and David Wilson, but I expect that both of those RBs will have better seasons than will Johnson. Chris can still put up a decent amount of rushing yards, but the Titans offense won't be making it any easier for him in 2013. You can kiss those double-digit touchdown 2,000-yard seasons goodbye. This is not the same Chris Johnson from four years ago.
Vernon Davis (TE, SF): I really hate to say this, considering Davis is a good player and a great guy off the field. But he could be the most overrated player going into this year's fantasy draft. Vernon's receiving yards have decreased for four straight seasons. With an average draft position of 54.1, Davis is the third overall tight end being drafted at this point. I think that indicates many things: it shows just how thin the TE position has become, and it also insidactes that people are still dreaming that Kaepernick's passing abilities can help recreate Davis's magical 13-touchdown season from 2009. Well sadly, that won't be happening in 2013. It was weird-- in Kaepernick's first start, Davis had six catches for 83 yards and a score. Everyone started thinking that all Davis needed was a better QB to throw him the football. For the next six games, he combined for six catches 61 yards. That's honestly embarrassing. The Niners are getting more out of Davis blocking for Gore than they are from him catching passes down the field. I would avoid Davis altogether in your drafts this season.
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If you like this article, check out the rest of our fantasy football analysis: rankings, sleepers, running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks and of course our live fantasy football chat, the best football chatroom on the interwebs. RotoBaller will be releasing more fantasy football content daily to help you prepare for the 2013 NFL Fantasy Football season so stay tuned!
