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A few games we can look at today include the Yankees at Rays, Padres at Rangers, and Angels at Blue Jays.
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Yankees @ Rays
Corey Kluber more than 5.5 strikeouts and Rich Hill less than 4.5 strikeouts
Kluber looked rejuvenated in his last start against the Toronto Blue Jays. He pitched four innings while allowing one earned run and striking out five. He should be able to go a little deeper in this one vs. the Rays and that is why I like the more than 5.5. strikeouts here. The Rays are posting a K rate of 22.8% vs. right-handers, but they are also only posting a walk rate of 8.3% and a wRC mark of just 76. Kluber should be able to navigate this lineup and not get himself into too much trouble, which should help him get to at least six strikeouts.
Rich Hill was not sharp in his debut against the Miami Marlins as he threw just four innings and gave up four earned runs while striking out four. The Marlins have a 21.4% K rate vs. left-handed pitching, which is solid, but is not quite as good as the Yankees 19.7% that ranks seventh in baseball. The Yankees can certainly get to the elder statesman in this one as they are currently posting a wRC+ of 111 vs. lefties and are also posting a .752 OPS.
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Padres at Rangers
More or Less Contest
Joe Musgrove more than 6.5 strikeouts and Kohei Arihara less than 3.5 strikeouts
Musgrove was superb in his debut as he fanned eight Diamondbacks across six innings pitched while allowing no runs on just three hits. Again, he looked fantastic in his debut and now gets a matchup vs. the Rangers who are striking out at a rate of 26.4% vs. right-handers compared to the 22.7% rate of the Diamondbacks. The prop is set accurately in this one, but he has the stuff to get over the hump. It might be worth paying attention to whether or not the roof is open at Globe Life tonight, because if it is closed, I like this prop even more.
Arihara had a rough debut against the Diamondbacks as he went five innings and allowed three earned runs while only striking out one. The one strikeout is what we want to focus on here as he faced a Royals squad that currently has a K rate of 28.9% vs. right-handers. He will now be facing a Padres squad that has a K rate of 18.8% vs. righties, which is the best in the league. Quite frankly, this prop is set too high based on his previous results and should probably be somewhere around 2.5.
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Angels @ Blue Jays
Fantasy Challenge Contest
Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Bo Bichette more than 10.5 fantasy points.
This prop is assuming Steven Matz is the starter for Jays. As of this writing, a starter for Toronto is not listed, but indicators point to it being Matz. Trout has started the season on fire as he is slashing .417/.563/.875. He has raked against lefties in his career as he posted a .988 and .783 OPS over the previous two seasons. He should be in line for a solid night.
Anthony Rendon has started slow this season, but he is another guy that absolutely crushes lefties. In 2020, he posted an OPS of .961 and in 2019 his OPS was 1.051 vs. left-handed pitching. While Matz was solid in his first start, this Angels team has an OPS of .777 vs. left-handers thus far in 2021 and has a 118 wRC+ mark. This is much better than the .574 OPS and 54 wRC+ mark of the Rangers he faced in his first outing.
Bo Bichette will be facing left-hander, Andrew Heaney who has shown he is blowup prone from time to time. Bichette has performed well vs. left-handers as he posted an OPS of .818 a season ago and an OPS of 1.080 in 2019. He has started the season a bit slow, but has heated up recently as he has hits in each of his last five games, including a two home run game against the Texas Rangers on April 6th.
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