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Stefan Crichton 2021 Player Outlook: High-Risk, Low-Reward at Closer
4 years agoArizona Diamondbacks closer Stefan Crichton took over the role following a midseason trade last year and looked great as he posted a 0.96 ERA and converted five of six save opportunities over the final month. But don't let that one month fool you, as Crichton saw almost all of his numbers take a hit from 2019. His 21.1 percent strikeout rate and 1.19 WHIP were both down from the previous season, and his 8.3 percent walk rate and 13.5 degree launch angle were both career-worsts. Along with that, Crichton appears to have gotten lucky with his 2.42 ERA, as his 3.92 xERA, 3.42 FIP, 4.55 xFIP, and 4.17 SIERA all suggest he should have done worse. The low ERA was likely helped by a sudden drop off in his HR/FB rate from 12 percent to 4.5 percent despite posting a nearly identical fly ball rate (31.3% in 2019, 30.1% in 2020). All the numbers suggest that Crichton is due for some regression, and it's very likely he will not be able to contribute much in any way in fantasy this year outside of only saves. Crichton is currently going as one of the last closers off the board in drafts, and outside of 12-team or deeper leagues managers should avoid him unless they're desperate for saves.
