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Kevin Gausman 2021 Outlook: Two-Pitch Mix Offers Tremendous Fantasy Upside In The Middle Of Drafts
4 years agoKevin Gausman finally had the breakout season experts expected since his Orioles days, going 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 3.06 xFIP over 59 2/3 IP for the Giants. He also posted a fantasy-friendly 32.2 K% and 6.5 BB%. Ironically, the secret to his success was throwing his two best pitches less often. His fastball combined an elite 70.5 Zone% with a strong 10.8 SwStr% in 2020, but he threw it 51.1% of the time versus 56.4% in 2019. Likewise, Gausman's split is an elite strikeout pitch with a 26.3 SwStr%, 27 Zone%, and 43.3% chase rate that saw its usage decline from 40.2% to 29.2%. His change (10.3 SwStr%, 37.3 Zone%, 16.5% chase) and slider (9.1 SwStr%, 39.4 Zone%, 25% chase) are both mediocre at best, but using them more often helped Gausman's two big weapons play up by making him less predictable. Statcast suggests that Gausman deserved his .296 BABIP (.221 BAA vs. .229 xBA), though his inflated 15.1% HR/FB is likely to repeat considering that he's still a two-pitch pitcher. Re-signing in the pitcher-friendly environment of San Francisco should help him limit the damage, making Gausman a great value pick at his current ADP of 138.
