RADIO
Mike Trout 2021 Outlook: Changing Profile Still Deserves Consideration As Top Pick
4 years agoAngels superstar Mike Trout continues to be excellent at baseball, but the shape of his greatness appears to be changing. He hit .281/.390/.603 with 17 long balls over 241 PAs in 2020, but fantasy managers may have wanted more than one steal and a higher average. His Statcast Sprint Speed declined slightly (28.9 ft./sec vs. 29.3 in 2019), and Trout's defensive metrics have indicated some loss of athleticism for two years now. As such, his days of 30+ steals are probably over. Trout's 23.2 K% was a career-worst, but his 17.4% chase rate was a career-best while his 6.4 SwStr% matched 2019. In short, Trout appears poised for favorable batting average regression. Trout is also adapting by becoming even more of a power hitter. His career FB% is 41.2, but he crushed that mark in both 2019 (49.2%) and 2020 (50.3%). His Statcast contact quality metrics are excellent (96.1 mph average airborne exit velocity, 15% Brls/BBE in 2020), so more fly balls are generally good for his fantasy performance. Trout may not be the five-category threat he once was, but the combination of a strong average with elite OBP, HR, and counting stats should still have the 29-year-old in the conversation for the first overall pick. His current ADP of 6.03 is a steal.
