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Ian Anderson 2021 Outlook: Lack of Strikeouts May Lead to Sophomore Slump
Atlanta Braves pitcher Ian Anderson went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 3.45 xFIP over 32 1/3 IP in a successful first MLB season. The 22-year-old also posted a sexy 29.7 K% and pitches for a contending club, so it's no surprise that fantasy managers are eager to add him to their rotations at an ADP of 91.86. Unfortunately, his stuff doesn't support the strikeouts. Anderson features a three-pitch repertoire: fastball-changeup-curve. His fastball averaged 94.5 mph last season, but its 2,063 RPM spin rate ranked in the ninth percentile of big-league pitchers. It only generated a 6.2 SwStr%. Both his change (18.9 SwStr%, 42.3 Zone%, 26.7 O-Swing%) and curve (14.3 SwStr%, 39.5 Zone%, 30.6 O-Swing%) were solid, but neither is the true wipeout pitch generally needed for a 30 K%. Their low Zone% marks are also the reason for his inflated 10.1 BB%. Anderson's "luck metrics" such as his .250 BABIP and 4.5% HR/FB could be due for regression as well, though it's worth noting that his .184 xBA and .234 xSLG were both close to his actual marks of .172 and .230, respectively. Low-spin fastballs can limit the damage on balls in play, but Anderson is probably too expensive unless the strikeouts repeat.
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