4 years agoI was the conductor aboard the Avoid-Kimbrel-at-all-Costs Train heading into 2019 AND 2020. I watched every outing of his for the Red Sox in the second half of 2018. Something was very wrong and it continued to get worse as the team marched through the playoffs. So I knew the disastrous 2019 season was no fluke. So what went wrong... again? The theory of tipping pitches came out after the 2018 World Series, and came out again in 2020 after Craig Kimbrel walked four and hit a batter while recording only one out in his first appearance against Cincy. While the theory sounds a little crazy to me when a pitcher only has two pitches to start with, it would certainly explain his recent swing rates against the curveball. Kimbrel only generated a 27.4 Swing% with the curve in 2020. That is 17 points lower than in 2019 and 12 points lower than his career average. The pitch may have lost a bit of movement over the years, but it still carried a 51.9 K% and .143 SLG even in this down year. Regardless of tipping or losing its bite, hitters were able to avoid it and sit on the cheese to the tune of an .812 OPS. Despite all of the troubles the past few seasons for Kimbrel, 2020 ended strongly trending in the right direction. His K% was it's highest since 2017 and the GB% increased for the second straight season, and the velocity was also back up over 97 after a worrisome dip in 2019. He ended the shortened campaign on a torrid run with 7.1  scoreless innings, 13 strikeouts, and ZERO walks. That's something he hasn't done since 2017. I never expect prime Kimbrel to be back, but 2020 showed that he is still capable of figuring it out, and considering Jeremy Jeffress is a free agent and Kimbrel is owed $16 million this season, I have a strong feeling the Cubs are willing to let him. His current NFBC of 217 overall presents an opportunity for a great return on investment if he can carry the momentum into 2021.--JB Branson - RotoBaller