Xander Bogaerts 2021 Player Outlook: Power Concerns Amidst Declining Offense
4 years agoIn 2020, Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts slashed .300/.364/.502 with 11 home runs, 28 RBI, 36 runs and eight stolen bases over 56 games. Clearly the alarming metric there is his RBI total. Bogaerts drove in 117 runs in 2019, but as the Red Sox offense dropped off significantly in 2020, Bogaerts' run production numbers fell off as well, despite hitting third or fourth in the order for most of the season. Unfortunately for Bogaerts, the Red Sox offense doesn't project to be much better in 2021 than it was in 2020. In addition to the RBI concern for Bogaerts, there might be an overall power concern to keep an eye on as well. In 2019, Bogaerts maintained a hard-hit rate of 44.1%, a career-best mark that drove his 33 home run season. Last year, however, his hard-hit rate dropped to 36.8%. He was still able to tally 11 home runs last year due to a career-best home run to fly ball rate of 18.6%, a surprising increase from his 16.7% HR/FB clip in 2019. Bogaerts is a career .289 hitter and is safe to count on for batting average help. His power numbers are a bit more suspect. He should be able to top 20 home runs, but his RBI ceiling might only be around 80 or 85. He's a solid target in the beginning of the fourth round if you haven't taken a shortstop yet, but don't reach for him any higher.