RADIO
In redraft season, you have to go into your draft prepared for all possible outcomes. Your league mates are going to draft differently every single time. So, when it comes time to make your selections, you have to be prepared to make difficult decisions and adjust to a changing board. Today, we’re talking WR1s that you’re getting in the third round with Tampa Bay Buccaneer Mike Evans and JuJu Smith-Schuster of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're both incredibly talented receivers that have put up outstanding years in their careers, and they'll be looking to better all of them in 2020.
These two are coming off seasons that finished in completely opposite directions. In the case of Evans in 13 games, he ran up over 232 fantasy points, which was good enough for WR5 on the season. He averaged a healthy 17.3 yards per reception to go with eight touchdowns, and he has a new quarterback in place. While Tom Brady doesn’t have the arm of Jameis Winston, the accuracy should be a huge improvement. We're going to see a different version of Evans than we've had to this point. Winston had the physical talent, but Brady is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. In a system like Bruce Arians' that allows him to really sling it, it'll be interesting to see how he utilizes these weapons.
For JuJu, after Ben Roethlisberger went down with an injury, the whole team seemed to follow suit, and Smith-Schuster was no exception. He struggled through 12 games en route to just 42 catches for 552 yards. Without his Hall-of-Fame quarterback under center, he just couldn’t get into a rhythm with the two backups that were trotted out. He's still considered one of the top 20 wide receivers in terms of talent and as long as Ben is throwing him the ball, he's a contender for top fantasy production on a weekly basis. Both are in position for a better 2020, but which one should you be taking?
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The Case for Evans
Evans has been one of the best receivers for fantasy since he entered the league back in 2014. He’s caught at least 1,000 receiving yards in every season since then, which ties him with Hall-of-Famer Randy Moss for the most 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start a career, with six. After being pegged as a jump-ball receiver for the past few years with Winston under center, Evans will have to change his game some to accommodate Tom Brady. Brady hasn't had a deep-ball receiver like this since Moss a decade ago. He's still got some power left in his shoulder, but he won't be able to fully match what Winston was doing last season.
Winston was second in the NFL last season in average intended air yards at 10.5, while Brady averaged just 7.6. Deep shots will likely come less frequently because Brady is more willing to take checkdowns. While this definitely hurts Evans’ bottom line, it also means that he’ll have more balls ending up in his hands than his opponents.
Evans isn’t the fastest guy on the field, but he’s deceptively good in YAC. He was in the top 10 in market share of his team's air yards, and I expect that to ring true. The big area of improvement will be in his catch percentage. Due to his proclivity for catching jump balls, that number has remained relatively low. I think he could easily post a career-best mark with Brady under center.
In six seasons, Evans has caught 48 touchdowns for an average of eight per season. He’s finished as WR23 or better in all six seasons, and he’s been WR13 or better in four out of six. He’s the top receiver on an offense that figures to be throwing the ball a lot under Bruce Arians.
While his deep targets are likely to come down, his overall target share should remain unchanged, and he’s got WR1 upside for a cheap price. For example, Tyreek Hill of the Kansas City Chiefs is being drafted at the end of the first round. He plays in an offense with the best quarterback in the game, but there are a ton of weapons around him that could impact his scoring. In Tampa, Evans will be the 1a or 1b every single week, and you're getting him two rounds later.
The Case for Smith-Schuster
The first thing JuJu has going for him is that he’s fully healthy after dealing with injuries all of last season. After racking up over 2,300 yards through his first two seasons, he just couldn’t stay on the field long enough to contribute last year. Throw in quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, and you had a recipe for disaster after he was drafted nearly universally in the first or second rounds. He was viewed by many as one of the biggest fantasy busts in 2019. While the injuries occurred to him, he was hurt by all sorts of other factors outside of his control. As long as he does what he can do this year, he's automatically in a better position.
Now, in 2020, JuJu is healthy and his quarterback will be back. Big Ben suffered an injury early in the season last year and he never returned. Ben played approximately 1.5 games last season and he didn’t even throw a touchdown. It didn’t matter because Smith-Schuster still dramatically outperformed himself in those two weeks.
In the two games with Ben, he averaged more receptions, targets, and he was on pace for over 1200 yards. Ben will be a boon for JuJu. JuJu is the only receiver on the team that Roethlisberger will have any established chemistry with and that will likely show in the early stages of the season. If you don't have a ton of faith in him long-term, you could look to flip him after the first few weeks when he's finished with multiple WR1 performances.
With Antonio Brown long gone, he’s going to see the opposing team’s best corner on a weekly basis. We’ve seen him make some truly special plays early in his young career, but can he keep that up against an opponent’s best corner? I think so. You’re getting about a half-round discount on JuJu over Evans, and you might even get a greater one depending on how your league mates are viewing him.
A high-volume receiver in an offense that likes to throw the ball is a good mix. Similar to Allen Robinson last year, Smith-Schuster could greatly outperform his ADP just due to raw volume. If James Washington and Diontae Johnson fail to take the next step in their development, Big Ben will likely have to force-feed him the ball.
The Verdict
These guys are separated by just about nine spots in PPR ADP. Evans is going at the front half of the round, and JuJu is coming off the board at the turn before the fourth. They both have aging quarterbacks in offenses that should be throwing the ball a lot. Evans gives you more touchdown and big-play upside, while Smith-Schuster is going to likely see more volume due to a limited receiving corps. I like JuJu as a bounce-back candidate this year, but I’m siding with Evans on this one. His price is higher, but I also prefer his ceiling a lot more. If you can’t get Evans because he’s off the board, JuJu is a great consolation prize with a lot of upside this year.
Take Evans over Smith-Schuster
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