Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook: TD Regression for the Packers' Playmaker
5 years agoAaron Jones broke out in a big way in 2019. After finally seeing a "workhorse" touch-share, he was the RB2 in fantasy behind just Christian McCaffrey. Last season, he carried the ball 100 more times than 2018 and saw nearly double the number of targets (35 vs 68). Jones was a staple in the Packers' offense all season, especially when Davante Adams was unavailable. In the four games Adams missed, Jones saw 27 targets and was essentially the Packers' pseudo-WR1. Despite his target fluctuation game-to-game, as a whole, the season was a success, as Jones found the end-zone 19 times via the air and ground. He took a significant leap, yet the Packers chose to select a running back in the second round of the 2020 Draft. This either indicates that they plan on letting Jones walk after this contract season or to continue splitting the workload via a committee going forward. Given that he was already splitting touches with Jamaal Williams, it is fair to assume that he will not be losing any opportunities in 2020 and rather it is the less efficient Williams who will be losing touches to rookie A.J. Dillon. Given that Green Bay chose not to address wide receiver in the draft, Jones will likely continue to receiver a large share of targets and potentially be split out wide and used as a "true" receiver more often. The only real fear in owning Jones is his inflated 2019 touchdown total inflating his value. There is a less-than-likely chance of him repeating his near 20 TD campaign and that is essentially baked into his early second-round ADP. He is still a buy in all formats (especially PPR) given the lack of true weapons Green Bay possesses.