5 years agoIn 2019, Lance Lynn threw a harder, more effective fastball than he’d ever thrown in his life. It’s difficult to believe in player change like that when it comes at the age of 32. However, in Lynn’s case, 2019 was the second full season of his reinvention. In fact, Lynn threw his final three games of 2017 with this newfound velocity, and he’s built on that ever since. In 2018, Lynn was unable to capitalize on the increased velocity because of apparent control issues. During that season, his first-pitch-strike rate and overall zone-rating both dropped to career lows. In 2019 Lynn put it all together and enjoyed a career year, but it was a season three years in the making. The result is a pitcher whose career arc looks similar to Charlie Morton, and Lynn’s trackable development should give managers greater confidence when drafting him. Lynn is at the age when regression is unavoidable, and projection systems are deeply skeptical of him. For his part, Lynn had a better xwOBA (.288) than Clayton Kershaw, James Paxton, and Yu Darvish. He had a better barrel rate than Stephen Strasburg, Sonny Gray, and Jack Flaherty. All six of those players are being drafted ahead of Lynn at his current ADP of 138. Lynn will almost certainly regress some, if for no other reason than his strikeout rate outpaced his swinging-strike rate. However, if Lynn’s ERA simply matches his SIERA, he’ll be a mid-round value play. Lynn will likely provide near 190 IP with a 3.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 200 K, and better than 10 wins.--David Emerick