RADIO
Victor Robles 2020 Outlook: More Potential Than Production in 2020
5 years agoVictor Robles had a great rookie season from a fantasy perspective, slashing .255/.326/.419 with 17 HR and 28 steals (nine CS). Fantasy owners seem to be buying the performance as legitimate, at least if his NFBC ADP of 59.97 is any indication. However, Robles's contact quality was terrible. His 88.6 mph average airborne exit velocity was three full ticks below league average, while his 4.8% rate of Brls/BBE ranked firmly in the bottom half of the league. It could be tough for Robles to repeat his 11.8% HR/FB even with a live ball. His 15.3 IFFB% was also way too high for somebody with his legs (29.3 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed), leading to a lot of wasted PAs. Worst of all, Robles's average exit velocity on grounders was 73.7 mph, “good” for dead last among the 406 players with at least 100 batted balls last season. Heck, Billy Hamilton of all people beat him by two full ticks. It all adds up to a .233 xBA and .370 xSLG per Baseball Savant, numbers that would put Robles's playing time in jeopardy on a contender like Washington. The 22-year-old oozes potential and provides a nice floor as an SB threat, but prospect growth isn't always linear and he would have to grow a lot to earn his current price tag. It may be better to let somebody else take the risk in 2020.
