Damien Williams 2019 Player Outlook: Believe in the Outlier
5 years agoPursuant to the Zac Stacy Corollary of 2013, fantasy owners should be weary of the free agent pickup RB that is suddenly an early round pick the following season. As a general rule, you should just remove Damien Williams from your draft board and play the percentages. I refuse to do that here. There enough reasons to believe that this job belongs to Williams to justify the reward in spite of the risk. Williams did not burst onto the scene after Kareem Hunt was released by the Chiefs. It took a Spencer Ware injury to unlock Williams' potential. Once handed the starting job, Williams excelled not only on the ground, but through the air as well. He has a three down skill set and good athletic measureables. The only actions the Chiefs took regarding their backfield this offseason were to sign Carlos Hyde and to draft Darwin Thompson in the sixth round. Hyde is nowhere near the pass catcher that Williams is and no threat to take Williams' job. Thompson is an intriguing prospect, but he is third on the depth chart, at best, and doesn't have the draft capital to threaten Williams. Every action the Chiefs have taken suggests this backfield belongs to Williams. The starting running back on the Chiefs is an RB1 as long he is at least replacement level. Williams is better than that. He can provide legitimate RB1 production at an RB2 price.
Update 8/13: I stand by my belief that Damien Williams is the RB1, but Andy Reid has mentioned an RBBC in the recent weeks on the heels of Williams' hamstring injury. Ultimately, the effect of that news has been to depress Williams' ADP, making him more of a value.
Update 9/1: I know my job is to tell you what I think will happen. I don't know what will happen. The range of outcomes here is massive. The LeSean McCoy signing could purely be for depth and this could be 70/30 Williams. Andy Reid could throw McCoy right in and this could be 70/30 McCoy. The most likely scenario is Williams starts Week 1, but McCoy's snap count increases weekly. Williams will still have fantasy value, but don't even look at him until at least the fifth round. McCoy belongs in the seventh or eighth on upside in this offense alone.