6 years agoOn the surface, Trevor Williams had a good fantasy season in 2018. He posted a 3.11 ERA and 14 wins in his first full season as a starter for Pittsburgh. Beneath the surface, however, things look a little murky. His strikeout rate was a meager 6.64 K/9, the fifth-lowest K/9 among qualified pitchers and the second-lowest among qualified pitchers with an ERA below 4.00. His 3.86 FIP would ostensibly back up his 3.11 ERA, at least to some extent, but even that metric seems inflated thanks to his bloated 4.68 SIERA and awful 2.29 K/BB ratio. Williams does have one standout skill, something he has consistently excelled at throughout his professional career from A-ball to the majors, and that is home run suppression. He allowed just 0.79 HR/9 last season, which was tied for eighth-best among qualified pitchers. Williams does this by limiting hard contact with an 85.6 MPH average exit velocity against and a 30.6% hard-hit rate against. This is a repeatable skill and should be helped by the fact that Williams calls PNC Park home. His fastball tops out around 91 MPH, and he would be lucky to crack 7.0 K/9, but Williams could be a decent source of ERA, WHIP, and wins once again in 2019. There isn’t much room for growth in his profile, and there is little margin for error in his contact-management pitching style, which makes his current ADP of 238 seem a little rich given the lack of upside.--Elliott Baas - RotoBaller