Odubel Herrera 2019 Outlook: Free Swinger Has Many Holes In His Game
6 years agoPhiladelphia Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera hit a career-high 22 home runs in 2018, but his season was considered mostly a disappointment with a slash line of .255/.310/.420 over 148 games. The 27-year-old has always been known as a free swinger, but the biggest difference is that he made much weaker contact last season. In his previous three seasons, Herrera had posted batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) of .345 or above, but that dropped to .290 in 2018 as his hard-contact rate fell to a career-low 24.9 percent. He also became more of a pull hitter and went the opposite way a career-low 27.4 percent of the time. Herrera has swung at over half of the total pitches he's seen for two straight years now, which makes it hard to sustain a healthy BABIP, overall average and on-base percentage. He stole a combined 41 bases in his first two seasons in the big leagues, but he's managed only 13 thefts the last two seasons. Couple his drop-off in stolen base attempts with his weakness in plate discipline and you have a player that has become somewhat one-dimensional that lacks major power. Unless Herrera becomes more selective at the plate and starts running more, he's just a late-round target for outfield depth with an ADP of 214. RotoBaller has him ranked just inside the top 200 players overall at 179.