6 years agoAt 35-years old, there is no doubt that Jon Lester is on the downside of his career. However, after his terrible 2017 campaign, the Cubs' opening day starter appeared to have a bounce-back season in 2018. He finished last season with a 3.32 ERA, went 18-6 and made the All-Star team; a big improvement from the 13-8 and 4.33 ERA he posted in 2017. Don’t let these stats fool you; the left-hander will regress to his 2017 numbers next season. Last year Lester had his lowest K/9 (7.4) since 2008, combined with a BB/9 (3.2) above three for the first time in seven seasons. When he did find the zone, his pitches had a hard-hit rate of 35.1%, by far a career high. The categories that improved in 2018 were done at an inconsequential rate. His WHIP dropped for 1.32 to 1.31, and opponents’ BA declined from .259 to .256. This is not enough to justify the change of outcome he saw in 2018, in fact, his FIP increased from 4.10 to 4.39. His 18 wins were largely the result of the 5.66 runs per game he received in support, fourth-most in the majors, and an entire run more than the Cubs averaged per game last year. The three-time champion has very little upside, but due to the defense behind him, led by Javier Baez, he will likely outperform his metrics. There is no question that Lester is one of the last true workhorses in baseball, he will eat innings for your team, and consistently have a chance at getting a win. However, his ADP of 170 is too high; owners are better served by taking a shot at a younger pitcher with more upside.--Ben Holmes