This article continues our team outlook series where we will break down each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off-season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year. Today we take a look at the Oakland Raiders.
Although Las Vegas Raiders has nice ring to it, the silver and black are still in California for the 2016 season. This year, they may actually be getting attention for something other than their yearly threat to move to L.A. (or San Antonio or Las Vegas). On paper, the Raiders look to be a promising young team on the rise. Will they be this year's surprise playoff team? Could they take advantage of Denver's suspect QB situation and even claim the division? Let's examine the roster and see what's on the horizon for this team and which players are worth fantasy owners' time and draft picks. Note: ADP data pulled from RotoBaller's Rankings Wizard and is current as of August 14, 2016.
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Quarterback
Fortunately for Derek Carr, he's nothing like his older brother. After a lifetime of being in the shadow of former #1 overall pick and colossal bust David Carr, the younger version has already seen more success in just two seasons. The elder Carr threw for 3,000 yards just once in ten years, with a career high of 3,531 and 16 TD. His biggest claim to fame was leading the league in times sacked three times, including a staggering 76 his rookie year. By contrast, in his rookie season, Derek threw for 3,270 yards with a 21/12 TD/INT rate. He improved on those numbers to the tune of 3,987 yards and 32/13 TD/INT. His completion percentage also jumped from 58.1% to 61.1%. All signs are pointing up for the former 2nd rounder and entering his third year, some are expecting him to make the leap to elite QB status.
Some fantasy owners might be tempted to wait a bit longer for their QB on draft day and pick outside the top ten. In this case, a player like Carr, who doesn't have an extended track record of success, will fall to them at QB12. To this strategy I say "Go for it!" If you have the opportunity to snag a passer easily capable of 4,000+ YDS and 35 TD in the 9th round, why would you jump the gun on an oft-injured veteran like Carson Palmer or Ben Roethlisberger two or three rounds earlier? While he shouldn't be depended on to single-handedly win leagues, Carr is the type of pick that can supplement a championship team with steady production throughout the season. Rookie Connor Cook is a late-round flier for dynasty owners looking for a talented arm, in spite of character questions.
Running Backs
Latavius Murray is one of the few workhorse backs that is not part of a committee situation entering this season. On the surface, Murray had a successful 2015 with 1,066 rushing yards, six TD and 4.0 yards per attempt. It was a very up-and-down campaign for Murray, however, as he ran for less than 50 yards in seven games while posting just two 100-yard efforts. There is something to be said for consistency, but consistent mediocrity isn't a welcome commodity in the fantasy world. Jack Del Rio has indicated that Murray may be in line for a bigger workload, so his numbers could very well increase. The main drawback to owning Murray is that he is not a major pass-catching threat which hurts his value slightly in PPR formats. Murray did catch 41 passes for 232 yards, but with rookie DeAndre Washington in the mix, those receiving numbers could actually decline. Washington was taken by the Raiders in the fifth round to serve as a change of pace and possibly earn a third-down role. The 5'8" runner from Texas Tech had a nice senior year with 1,877 combined yards and 16 TD, but is undersized to compete for a feature back role. Murray is still the lead dog, but Washington makes for a good handcuff in deep leagues and should be a mid-round selection in dynasty leagues.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper isn't a future star receiver. He is a star. Period. Cooper became just the sixth rookie receiver in the last decade to record a 1,000 yard season in his debut. Cooper and Carr have reportedly become inseparable and the chemistry between this young QB/WR combo could be special. Some have speculated that the Raiders' passing numbers from last year are slightly inflated due to a litany of second-half deficits and deep balls in order to play catch-up. In reality, Cooper put up an equal amount of production in nine losses (38-523-4) than in their seven wins (34-523-2). It may premature to label Cooper a first-round pick in re-draft leagues, but he could easily be considered a top-ten WR pick in dynasty leagues.
Michael Crabtree revived his career by moving just across the Bay and has made himself relevant once more in fantasy circles. After notching just one 1,000-yard season and suffering through two lackluster, injury-filled years in San Fran, Crabtree nearly duplicated his breakout 2012 season. 85 REC, 922 YDS, nine TD place him firmly on the WR2/3 bubble. Seth Roberts has the highest ceiling of all the reserves and could be an interesting waiver add if Cooper or Crabtree succumb to injury. The second-year receiver out of West Alabama ended up with 480 yards and scored five times. He isn't worth attention in re-draft leagues, but has more upside than Andre Holmes, who saw his role decline sharply once Cooper was selected.
Tight Ends
Clive Walford is becoming a popular sleeper pick in the late portions of drafts and for good reason. He got off to slow start in his rookie year after being limited in training camp. Walford wound up with 28 receptions for 329 yards and as a result is flying under the radar. It has been a while since the silver and black have had an All-Pro tight end to boast, but in time Walford has the potential. He may not have blazing speed for a tight end and lacks the athleticism of fellow Hurricane alums like Jimmy Graham or Kellen Winslow II, but he is big enough at 6'4", 254 lbs to overpower linebackers and cause havoc in the red zone. Target Walford as a later pick for your backup TE. Mychal Rivera had a line of 58-534-4 in 2014 and appeared to be a player on the rise until Walford was selected and ate into his production. Lee Smith has totaled 32 catches in his five year career and is not remotely a receiving threat.
Kicker
No kicker battle going on here. For nearly two decades, we've been able to put Sebastian Janikowski down as the Raiders kicker and at age 38 that hasn't changed. He has made at least three 50+ yard FG every season since 2005, but he hasn't made more than 21 FG in the past three seasons. He is a safe, if unexciting option for a backup kicker if you require one.
Defense/Special Teams
If there is a true sleeper for fantasy owners to watch for on this team, it may be the defense. Khalil Mack exploded onto the scene last year with 15 sacks in his second season and became the first player in NFL history to earn All-Pro status at two positions simultaneously (DE and OLB). In leagues using IDP, he should unquestionably be a top-ten choice. He is now complimented by former Seahawks linebacker Bruce Irvin on the other side at linebacker. The only major loss on the defense came with the retirement of perennial Pro-Bowler Charles Woodson. The secondary may actually be better this year, however, with the free agent additions of Sean Smith at corner and Reggie Nelson at safety. Nelson led the NFL in interceptions with eight last year and earned a Pro Bowl spot as a result. The Raiders went D-heavy early in the draft as well, with S Karl Joseph in the first round out of West Virginia, followed by a pair of DE in Jihad Ward and Shilique Calhoun. There is a nice balance of experience and youth, guided by a head coach who is a former defensive player and coordinator. With a sack total sure to remain steady thanks to Mack, the Raiders could surprise as a starting-caliber fantasy defense this year that will likely be available on the waiver wire after drafts.
Overall Fantasy Outlook
Although the Raiders were found digging themselves out of holes frequently last year, there is little reason to think they will stop throwing it downfield even if they produce a winning season in 2016. The identity of this team is built around a young QB/WR tandem that figures to increase its production with experience. David Carr could be one of the most undervalued assets in fantasy football drafts. Amari Cooper will need to build on his outstanding rookie production to warrant his current 2nd round ADP, but he certainly has the talent and means to do so. Defensively, Mack and Nelson could be starting IDP options in leagues requiring a player at each major position group. If there is a knock on this team, it would be lack of depth. None of the reserves currently project to be future stars, so injuries could seriously derail the Raiders' outlook. Optimistically speaking, this could be a playoff bound team with a four solid fantasy starters and a couple of sleepers to boot.
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