Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 5)

As you know by now, I like to take a look around MLB as we head into the weekend and see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 4/25)

Alec Bohm (9)

Alec Bohm is off to a fantastic start to the season, currently riding a nine-game hit streak. Not only that, over the last four games he's hitting .647 (11-for-17) with at least one extra base hit in each game (five doubles). The 27-year-old has 21 RBI on the season and is a top-5 scoring third baseman so far. Adding to his appeal for fantasy is his eligibility at both first and third base. The Phillies begin a series with the Padres Friday night, facing Joe Musgrove who Bohm is 2-for-5 off of in his career with a double and no strikeouts.

Jose Trevino (8)

Jose Trevino is a catcher who makes a lot of contact, recording a Contact% of 84.2% last season in 55 games and 80.9% for his career. While those are good numbers, he's outdone that so far this season with an 87.8% contact rate which has propelled him to the second-longest current hit streak in the majors at eight games. Unfortunately, with a career Barrel% of 4.7% and sixth-percentile sprint speed, he's not going to provide many extra-base hits, but he could be a decent fill-in for DFS purposes if you're looking for a cheap catcher.

Adley Rutschman (6)

I won't spend a lot of time reminding you how good Adley Rutschman is or make a big to-do over a six-game hit streak, but I do want to point out how many hits he has during this mini six-game hit streak: 13. It's one reason why I color-code the batting average column above, so you can more easily see who might be getting more than just one hit per game. In Rutschman's case, he's got five multi-hit games in his last six, and 12 on the year (23 games played).

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 4/24)

Michael Harris II (.480)

We'll talk about d'Arnaud below and we talked about Bohm above, so let's skip down to Michael Harris II. Remember the awful start he got off to last season? Not so in 2024, currently slashing .330/.363/.495 over the first 23 games. In addition to swinging a hot bat over the past week, four of his five stolen bases on the season have come in the past week too. With Ozzie Albies on the verge of returning from the IL, Harris will likely move back down in the order, but that should only provide him with additional RBI opportunities.

Julio Rodriguez (.440)

It took Julio Rodriguez 22 games and 88 at-bats before he finally hit his first home run of the season. After a six-game hit streak that included a four-hit game, you knew he was heating up and that it was coming, and it did in the seventh game of his hit streak. Now that the first home run drama is out of the way, he may settle in even more and maintain this momentum for a while. And like Harris, he's stealing bases too, with three in the last week alone.

A MOONSHOT for Julio Rodríguez' first home run of the 2024 season#TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/uXpiTMFRxT

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) April 24, 2024

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 4/24)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Travis d'Arnaud (1.231)

With Sean Murphy hitting the IL, Travis d'Arnaud took lead-catcher duties but is still splitting time with backup catcher Chadwick Tromp. As a result, he may not have had as many at-bats over the past week as some of the others listed in the table above, but boy has he made the most of those swings. After a three-home run game last Friday, d'Arnaud smacked another on Saturday, and another on Monday, making it five over the past week. He's not a one-trick pony though, as the backstop has six doubles on the season as well.

We will now only report when d'Arnaud doesn't homer.
He now has five homers in his past eight at-bats. pic.twitter.com/VyypJa5BYD

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) April 23, 2024

Will Brennan (.563)

Five of the six hits Will Brennan has collected over the past seven days have gone for extra bases (three doubles, two HR). The lefty had a third-percentile Barrel% last season, resulting in five home runs in 432 at-bats. The 26-year-old has upped it to a 56th-percentile Barrel% this season and it's clearly paying dividends. With two homers in 60 at-bats, Brennan is on a 16-homer pace (assuming 500 at-bats). While he's sure to cool off, he should easily set a new career high in home runs this season.

Update: Brennan hit another home run on Thursday, bringing his season total to three in 64 at-bats

Edouard Julien (.435)

Edouard Julien's power output of 16 home runs was questioned by some, wondering if it was repeatable with a player of his profile. Well, here he is again, swatting home runs in the early going of 2024. The lefty has three in the last week and five on the season. Somewhat unbelievably, and perhaps the low batting average is scaring managers off, but he's currently available in over half of Yahoo leagues. Surely more managers have the need for his power output, and if you do, he may still be available in your league.

Update: Julien hit TWO more home runs Thursday, bringing his season total to seven

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Elly De La Cruz (8)

You know he's fast, but it's still important to point out that Elly De La Cruz has the most steals over the past week with eight and leads all of baseball in stolen bases with fifteen on the season. Right now he's getting on base a lot, which was a concern heading into the season with his high strikeout rate from a season ago. It's a long season so it can change, but right now it's looking like he'll run away with the stolen base title if he can continue to get on base.

After stealing 3 bases last night, Elly De La Cruz is up to 15 on the season. 🔥

He is the 11th player in our database to steal 15+ bases in March/April, and the first since José Reyes in 2007.#MLB | #ATOBTTR pic.twitter.com/8P70D5813b

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) April 25, 2024

xBA Underachievers

(data through 4/24)

Below are the hitters who have the biggest difference between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career so regression to the xBA may not happen.

For what it's worth, Francisco Lindor was listed here last week and had a great week that culminated with a four-hit, two-home run day on Wednesday. On the other hand, Jonathan India continued a horrendous display of hitting to begin the season.

Ryan O'Hearn  (.281 vs .382)

Ryan O'Hearn had a nice season in 2023 for the Orioles, belting 14 home runs and driving in 60 runs in 112 games while batting .289 with an xBA of .260. The tables have turned in 2024, with the xBA higher than his current batting average by a wide margin. The lefty is still hitting a solid .281, but he's barreling balls up and hitting them hard (17.7% Barrel%, 49% HardHit%), and expected stats think his BA should be higher. With a career Barrel% of 9.7% though, his current Barrel% is unsustainable, so I don't expect a jump in BA.

Lars Nootbaar (.220 vs .314)

As with O'Hearn above, Lars Nootbaar is hitting the ball hard with a 54.3% HardHit% on the season. He has a decent Barrel% too at 8.6%. But the batting average is lacking. He hit .265 last season in 117 games and recently returned from injury so perhaps he is still shaking off some rust as well. His BABIP of .242 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky too, especially considering his career BABIP of .280. I do expect Nootbaar's batting average to trend upward from here. If you're wondering, O'Hearn has a .255 BABIP vs .287 for his career.

xBA Overachievers

We'll touch on a couple of hitters who will probably come back to Earth soon. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well, so don't expect them to go ice cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Connor Wong (.370 vs .262)

You hate to rain on the parade, but Connor Wong's current hot streak may not last. He's batting .370 on the season with five home runs in his last 10 games, but his xBA suggests he's performing over his head. The backstop hit .235 over 126 games with nine home runs. With a 2.5% Barrel% also, his current home run pace appears to be unsustainable.

Wilyer Abreu (.322 vs .233)

While we're poo-pooing Red Sox, Wilyer Abreu is also performing better than expected. The 24-year-old had a good .316 BA last season in his limited 28-game sample, but excluding his first year in rookie ball, Abreu never hit above .274 at any stop in the minors. It's hard to imagine he'll maintain this success all season, especially as opposing pitchers get more and more film on him.

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