RADIO
This is an article I did not expect to write. Or maybe, as a Bills fan, I hoped that I never had to write it. When the news broke that Stefon Diggs was traded to the Texans I had to check multiple times that it was not from a burner account.
But it is true. The Buffalo Bills traded Stefon Diggs along with a 2024 sixth-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick to Houston for the Vikings 2025 second-round pick. They also ate close to $30 million in dead cap to do so.
This trade, which quickly came together on a random Wednesday morning in April, is sure to change the foreseeable future for both franchises. Not only that, but it will have huge ramifications for fantasy football. Those are the big three questions that now need answering after this trade.
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What Trading for Stefon Diggs Means for the Houston Texans
Let's get right to the point with this one - the Houston Texans are Super Bowl contenders in 2024. It is a remarkable turnaround considering the state of the franchise just a year ago. But with C.J. Stroud playing phenomenal ball, winning rookie of the year, and a playoff game, the Texans already were looking like a force to be reckoned with as their QB continued to develop.
They did the right thing and were aggressive adding proven pieces while their QB is on a rookie deal. They kept Dalton Schultz and traded for Joe Mixon, making sure to give their QB plenty of weapons around him. They signed Danielle Hunter, who was fifth in the NFL in sacks last year, to pair with defensive rookie of the year Will Anderson Jr. DeMeco Ryans, who tied in the voting for NFL coach of the year in 2023, now has a ton of star power up front to right that defense and could now focus their draft resources on that side of the ball.
They were already looking like divisional favorites. But now they go out and acquire a receiver who has topped 100 catches and scored at least eight touchdowns in four straight years. He has averaged 1,343 yards per year in that stretch. Even if his second-half slump last year was an early sign of decline, he no longer has to be an alpha on this team.
Diggs, along with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, give the Texans three legit receivers, with quality depth in Noah Brown. All three can be moved around the field, and while Collins and Dell are big-play threats, they now have a strong route runner who can quickly get open and move the chains for Stroud. That was an area where they struggled at times in 2023. Plus, Diggs can be a strong veteran presence for the young receivers. And best of all for Houston, his contract expires right at the same time you’d have to give Stroud a big bump in pay. Plus, they can potentially get out of it sooner if they want.
How I see the Houston Texans WR room coming together after the Stefon Diggs trade playing with a rapidly ascending C.J. Stroud. pic.twitter.com/ThH8TjLDI8
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 3, 2024
The Texans have completely revitalized their franchise and are doing exactly what you are supposed to do when you have a star QB on a rookie deal. Go all in.
What Trading Away Stefon Diggs Means for the Buffalo Bills
Simply put, this hurts the Bills in 2024. Sure, you could argue that Diggs faded last year averaging just 43 yards per game with Joe Brady as the OC. He once again came up small in the playoffs and had a terrible drop fall right through his hands late against the Chiefs. And as the mantra goes - you would rather be a year early than a year late moving on from a player. Still, Diggs has also been a one-man wrecking crew, putting up massive numbers yearly for the Bills even as they struggled to find consistent supporting pieces. He was good for 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns like clockwork - which will be extremely hard to replace, especially considering the time of this move.
Stefon Diggs under Joe Brady
- 8.3 targets per game
- 4.9 catches per game
- 43.1 rec yards per game
- 1 TD in 9 gamesDiggs averaged 10.3 fantasy PPG in 7 regular season games. He had less than 13 fantasy points in 1 game this year pre-Brady
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 29, 2024
The Bills made the trade after all quality free agents had been signed. They did so though before June 1, which cost them money. They’ve now backed themselves into a corner where they do not have much cap, and despite having lots of draft picks, have made it abundantly clear that they are in the receiver market. Teams can now hold that against them if they try to trade up. If they can acquire one of the top three receivers in this draft class, then you can feel like this was a good, long-term move. But if they do not, it will greatly diminish their chances of winning in 2024. And when you have a franchise QB in his prime, wasting a year is foolish.
From a long-term perspective, this move does help the Bills clear a lot of cap for 2025 and beyond. It also allows them to enter the second stage of the Josh Allen era - as the team will look extremely different. But, there are already some concerns about a declining offensive line, and now taking away the top and most proven weapon only puts even more pressure on the shoulders of 17 (who carries the team as is already).
Brandon Beane spoke a lot about trust in his presser after trading Diggs. But trust is earned. And you can say given the last four seasons that Beane and Sean McDermott have earned trust and the benefit of the doubt. But as someone who has watched every snap of Josh Allen’s career - I am still filled with questions if they deserve that trust or if they just found a top two QB walking the planet who makes them look great. We should find out soon enough as this is a potentially regime-defining stretch.
What this Trade Means for Fantasy Football
This move is huge for fantasy football purposes. First, it moves Stroud into the QB5 range. There is a top tier of fantasy QBs that includes Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. But after that group is drafted, the Stroud conversation begins. I put him in the second tier of fantasy QBs with Anthony Richardson and Joe Burrow.
Stroud is the obvious biggest winner in this trade. But it does not have that same effect on the Texans' new wide receiver trio. There was already set to be a summer-long battle over Collins and Dell and who should be drafted first. To be honest, my opinion was whichever one was cheapest as I believe both are very talented and could co-exist with Stroud.
Thread on the #Texans WR core!
First... what they did when their top 2 options were healthy last year
- Nico Collins: 67 targets, 46 catches, 720 yds, 5 TD, 25% target rate, 11 air yards per tgt
- Tank Dell: 61 targets, 41 catches, 653 yards, 6 TD, 24% target rate, 14.5 AY/T
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 3, 2024
Weeks 7-12 when both Nico and Tank played
- Collins: 31 targets, 21 catches, 253 yards, 2 TD, 25% target rate, 10.2 AY/T
- Dell: 33 targets, 22 catches, 329 yds, 4 TD, 25% target rate, 16.4 AY/T
Similar targets, but Dell was the big play threat which is huge with CJ Stroud
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 3, 2024
But with Diggs in town, everything gets shaken up. All of their fantasy value takes a hit as they will have to share volume. Diggs likely takes the biggest hit, since he has consistently seen over 150 targets in Buffalo. It seems very unlikely he will reach that number this year. Last season, Diggs had a 29 percent target rate (percent of routes ran where a target was earned). That was 27 percent for Collins and 25 percent for Dell. All three could sit above 20 percent, but it is unlikely any of the three stay at last year's number.
But volume is the only concern, as the trio fit together very nicely. All three are capable of lining up all over the field. You may not guess it, but Collins actually rated the best of the three in the slot. Collins and Dell are exceptional deep threats, while Diggs rated by far the lowest of the three on targets of 20-plus air yards. However, he was extremely efficient and the most productive of the three on short to intermediate throws.
All three also can operate efficiently in the red zone. You may not guess it looking at them, but Collins actually rated out the worst of the three according to Next Gen Stats. That is where things can get murky and likely determine much of the fantasy value, which is why they each take a ding in fantasy value. Before this trade, all three were being drafted as top 20 fantasy WRs. It will be very tough for all three to finish as such now, and who has the best week could come down to which of the trio catches a touchdown.
It is certainly possible that all three can finish in the WR2 range. But getting there could be a rollercoaster ride. All three would quantify as better in best ball leagues because you do not need to try and figure out who may have a good game in a given week. Still, all three are worth starting weekly in redraft because the upside is so high. Diggs likely brings the safest floor and would be the sturdiest week to week as the possession receiver. But, Collins and Dell bring high ceilings as the big play threats with the best deep ball thrower in the NFL. Dell is the riskiest bet as he is coming off a season-ending injury.
How I look at this situation working out w/ the #Texans is the 2018 #Rams WR unit.
In the 8 games, they played together, that szn
Cooper Kupp | Robert Woods | Brandin CooksKupp | 16.9 FPPG – 20.6 tgt pct
Woods| 17.7 FPPG – 24.3 tgt pct
Cooks| 17.0 FPPG – 22.1 tgt pct
- - - - -…— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) April 3, 2024
Another winner here is Joe Mixon, as teams will not be able to stack the box against him anymore. The trio of WRs, especially considering their downfield strength, should open plenty of running lanes for the new Texans RB. He will get drafted as an RB2, but has the upside to finish any week as an RB1. Dalton Schultz takes a hit and is more of a TE2, as his volume is sure to decrease.
On the Bills side of things, it is hard to give a firm stance as their receiver room is currently incomplete. However, this does open up the discussion if Allen should be the first QB drafted in fantasy. He has been my QB1 for years now, but I already had some concerns with him averaging 232.7 passing yards and 1.6 pass TDs per game under Joe Brady. The rushing ability likely keeps him as QB1 for many drafters, but that is more up in the air than ever right now.
As of right now, there would surely be a huge volume boost for Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel Jr. But Beane himself has said that the Bills will be adding a receiver. Depending on which one(s) they add will greatly determine the fantasy value of the Bills pass catchers.
One thing seems for sure though - expect James Cook to remain heavily involved. Not only did he see a big boost in volume with Joe Brady (and over 100 scrimmage YPG), but the loss of Diggs likely does not lead to a heavy increase in passing for the Bills. Cook remains a high-end RB2 who could finish as an RB1 in fantasy.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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