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I know what you're thinking: "Who the heck writes an article bashing prospects before the NFL Draft? Can't you just let these young men enjoy the journey?" The point of this article isn't to dunk on any of the players who might have underperformed and already declare them busts in the NFL, but in the fantasy football landscape, we must always be aware of player values, especially in dynasty leagues. After all, one of the most important aspects of fantasy football is being able to consistently beat player ADPs.
The good news is that if you have a favorite prospect or two who underperformed or ran a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash time, you'll likely have an easier time acquiring them in your rookie drafts. As we have seen with players in the past such as Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, the NFL Combine isn't everything. With some players, you just have to trust what you've seen on tape on Saturdays and hope that it translates to the next level. It's no secret that certain players are definitely faster in pads than others.
Each year, NFL prospects rise and fall at the NFL Combine. Their stocks fluctuate, often stirring debates among NFL teams and circles about who should be drafted where. Here are several players who unfortunately might have seen a dip in their dynasty ADP and might even fall on NFL Draft weekend. Remember, the intent of this article isn't to be malicious, but to remain conscious of the current market and potentially spot some new values. Buy low and sell high, that's often the name of the game.
NFL Combine Losers
Audric Estime - RB, Notre Dame
It was a rough afternoon for the talented back from Notre Dame. His agent should have told him to sit out the 40-yard dash as Estime ran an unimpressive 4.71. In fairness to Estime, he is a larger running back at 5-foot-11 and 221 pounds and he did post a 38-inch vertical leap as well as a 10.05 broad jump.
It's not an end-all, be-all for his NFL hopes, but Rams RB Kyren Williams has already been pushing the envelope in the speed department with only running a 4.65 at his combine. Estime is likely a Day 3 draft pick at this point, but could be a solid asset in short yardage and around the goal line. He will be worth a dice roll in the third round or later of rookie drafts.
The 4.71 was a dissapointment, but don't give up on Audric Estime.
Few player his size have his combination of footwork, vision and contact balance... plus soft hands!
And oh yeah, he hurdles like Edwin Moses.
He'll get a legit 200-carry role with TD upside. pic.twitter.com/NpCTdbKePF
— Dynasty Zoltan (Mike Garai) (@DynastyZoltanFF) March 5, 2024
Troy Franklin - WR, Oregon
Franklin didn't necessarily do anything wrong, but he was overshadowed by fellow wide receivers Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, and Brian Thomas Jr. There is some serious depth at WR in this year's draft class and sometimes I can't help but wonder if once we get past the big three WR prospects, teams might be willing to wait to take one until Round 2. Franklin ran a 4.41 40-yard dash, which is still very fast, but he only measured in at 6-foot-2 and 176 pounds, which is on the lighter side as far as wide receivers are concerned.
Is it a complete blow to Franklin's NFL hopes? Of course not, but many had him penciled in as the WR4 in this class. With the rise of other receivers in this year's draft, Franklin might have to wait a little bit longer to hear his name called on draft night. The good news is there are some very attractive wide receiver landing spots in the back of Round 1 that involve Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and even Kansas City.
Bucky Irving - RB, Oregon
Not trying to pile on Oregon here either, but Irving didn't exactly have the best showing at the NFL Combine. Unlike Estime, he is an undersized back at 5-foot-9 and 192 pounds who happened to run a 4.56 in the 40-yard dash. It doesn't completely crush his NFL hopes, but if you're a smaller back or a cornerback, you really need to run under a 4.50.
Irving is one of the better receiving backs in this class and we know that receptions for running backs are a complete cheat code in fantasy. What remains, however, is the reality that Bucky could struggle to carve himself out a three-down role in an offense somewhere. Nonetheless, if the landing spot works out, there's still reason to believe that Irving could thrive in a James White sort of role, which could be a huge boost in PPR leagues.
Just a reminder that while Bucky Irving might not run 40 yards in a straight line as fast as you hoped, he’s still slicker than oil!
— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) March 2, 2024
Spencer Rattler - QB, South Carolina
The former Oklahoma quarterback had people intrigued heading into the NFL Combine, but he didn't exactly show out. Many had considered him to be a dual-threat type of QB with untapped potential, but Rattler only ran a 4.95 40-yard dash and didn't exactly show out in the agility drills either.
In fact, Rattler scored the lowest among any of the quarterbacks in the athleticism drills. He also measured in at just six feet tall and only weighed 211 pounds. He displayed some decent arm strength during the QB drills, but given the lack of athleticism and size, it's hard to imagine Rattler being drafted to be anything but a backup QB at this point.
Bralen Trice - DE/Edge, Washington
This will factor in more heavily for those of you playing in IDP leagues, but it was easy to be disappointed with Trice's combine performance. He slimmed down from his usual playing weight of 270+ pounds down to 245 pounds, but he wasn't any faster and only posted a 4.72 40-yard dash time.
This isn't a complete death blow to Trice's NFL hopes, but it likely knocked him out of the first round. He's got an incredible motor and is a relentless pass-rusher off the edge, but he doesn't have the same athletic profile as some of the premier edge- rushers in the game today. Bulking back up to his former weight might be a good move.
Kamren Kinchens - S, Miami
Kinchens had the eye of many across NFL circles as he's a hard-hitting safety, but unfortunately, he didn't run well at the combine. Kinchens posted a 4.65 40-yard dash time and only measured in at 5-foot-11 and 203 pounds. With how much the spread offense has changed the NFL, safeties are required to play in so much more space than they used to, which makes athleticism all the more important. As NFL teams are running the ball less in 2024 and beyond, traditional box safeties are becoming a thing of the past. He could still have some value in IDP as long as he lands in the right fit.
Stay tuned here at RotoBaller all offseason long as we are now just 50 days away from the 2024 NFL Draft!
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