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Joe Ryan 2024 Player Outlook: HR Rate Concerning, But Elite K-BB% Points To ADP Outperformance
11 months agoMinnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan spun a tale of two seasons last year. Through 13 starts and 77 2/3 IP, the righty owned a 2.90 ERA with an 84:15 K:BB and 6 HR allowed (0.7 HR/9). Over his final 16 starts and 84 IP, the 27-year-old owned a 6.00 ERA and allowed 26 HR (2.8 HR/9). Still, he maintained a fantastic 25.8% K-BB% over that stretch, which was actually up from 22.4% in those first 13 starts. K-BB% was 24.3% on the season, up 7.1% from 2022. The former seventh-round draft pick ended with a Pitching+ of 105, up from 99 in 2022, so there are still reasons for optimism heading into 2024, but he needs to figure out what made him so HR-prone last year. He finished the season 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA (4.13 FIP), 1.17 WHIP, and 197 K in 161 2/3 IP. FGDC projections have him going 11-10 again with a 4.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 197 K, and a 20.0% K-BB% in 179 IP. NFBC ADP has him going around pick 95, but RotoBaller is a bit more bullish, ranking him at 86. He can be a solid third pitcher for your fantasy squad, with the upside of a number two.
