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Josh Naylor 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Multi-Category Producer Offers High Ceiling, Safe Floor
12 months agoCleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor has not played more than 122 games in a season since debuting in 2019. If he can stay healthy for an entire season, he could end up with some prolific stats. In 2023, he slashed .308/.489/.842 with 17 HR, 97 RBI, 52 R, and 10 SB in just 122 games. In 2022, however, he ended with a .256 average in nearly the same number of games (121). So, which Naylor can we expect in 2024? Well, in 2021 and 2022 combined, Naylor hit just .181 against LHP (35-for-193), but last season he hit .299 (41-for-137) against them. The much higher overall BA this past season is correlated to his newfound success against LHP. The 26-year-old could have figured something out in his swing and looking deeper. It shows he's lowered his ground ball rate while increasing his launch angle in each of the last five seasons, resulting in more line drives and fly balls. Naylor also lowered his K% to a career-low 13.7% in 2023. If the change in swing mechanics helps him hit LHP, then all the Guardians need to figure out is how to keep him healthy, and they might have the solution. Naylor played 91 games at 1B in 2023. Still, the Guardians' top-rated prospect, first baseman Kyle Manzardo, could make the opening day roster in 2024 (or shortly after that), giving Naylor the full-time DH role and hopefully keeping him in the lineup for the entire season. That said, he is reasonably priced in drafts, with a current NFBC ADP of 134, while RotoBaller has him ranked just ahead of that at 129. Expected to hit cleanup, FGDC has the 26-year-old projected for .284-23-85-74-8 with a .349 WOBA and 125 wRC+. If he hits his ceiling, he could return some value, but he also offers a safe floor for managers who miss out on some of the more significant 1B bats higher in the draft.
