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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat, another article in our weekly series of free NBA betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NBA betting breakdown article is for Saturday, April 1st.
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Today's Betting Overview - Mavericks @ Heat
The Mavericks take on the Heat on Saturday, April 1st at Miami-Dade Arena, Miami. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NBA games throughout the 2022-2023 season.
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks (37-40) vs. Miami Heat (40-37)
- Date: Saturday, April 1st
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Miami-Dade Arena
Today's NBA Sportsbook Odds - Mavericks @ Heat
- Caesars Sportsbook NBA Odds
- BetMGM Sportsbook NBA Odds
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Mavericks
- Frank Ntilikina (Questionable) Knee
Heat
- Kyle Lowry (Questionable) Knee
- Bam Adebayo (Questionable) Hip
- Nikola Jovic (Out) Back
Dallas Mavericks - NBA Betting Analysis
In Dallas' most recent game, Luka Doncic led the team in scoring with 24 points, but the Mavericks fell to the 76ers by a score of 116-108 to the 76ers. Going into the game, oddsmakers had Dallas as the 6.0 point underdog, resulting in an ATS loss for the team.
Now, the Mavericks' overall record sits at 37-40, placing them 11th in the Western Conference. The team's current record at home is 22-16 and 15-24 on the road. Dallas' record against the spread is below .500 at 30-45.
Over their last five games, the Mavericks' are averaging 114 points per game. For the season, Dallas is ranked 16th at 113.8 points per contest. Dallas' three-point shooting numbers are among the best in the NBA, as the team ranks 9th in the NBA, having hit 37.2% of their looks from deep. But given that they are just 28th in possessions per game, their overall scoring numbers are closer to the league average. Currently, the Mavericks are 16th in overall field goal percentage.
Dallas' defense is currently ranked 15th in the league at 104.7 points allowed per game. Dallas is hovering around the league average despite forcing turnovers at a below average rate at 11.8 per game. Also, the unit has struggled to clean up the defensive glass, ranking 27th in defensive rebounds per game. So far, opponents have hit 45.8% of their field goal attempts and 34.0% of their looks from deep.
Miami Heat - NBA Betting Analysis
The Heat enter today's game having lost three straight, including a 101-92 loss to the Knicks. Gabe Vincent led the team in scoring with 21 points on 72.7% shooting. Going into the game, oddsmakers had Miami as the 6.0 point underdog, resulting in an ATS loss for the team.
Now, the Heat's overall record sits at 40-37, placing them 7th in the Eastern Conference. The team's current record at home is 25-14 and 15-23 on the road. The Heat have failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games and have an overall ATS record of 28-47.
The Heat's offense has had difficulties scoring throughout the season, ranked 30th with an average of 108.7 points per game. To make matters worse, they have seen a drop in production lately, averaging just 104 points per contest over their last five games. Some key reasons behind the Heat's offensive struggles is their poor shooting numbers from outside. Currently, they rank 10th in attempts and 27th in percentage at 34.1%. The team's slow pace of play is also impacting their scoring numbers, as they are 96.2 in possessions per game. On average, Miami gets to the line 23.2 times per game (19th) and has hit 83.2% of these attempts.
On the defensive end of the floor, the Heat have allowed opponents to shoot 45.8% from the field (24th) and are giving up 104.7 points per game which is 15th in the NBA. Although Miami is not strong on the defensive glass, ranking 27th in defensive rebounds per game, they do a good job forcing turnovers. So far, they have turned teams over an average of 12.8 times per game (9th).
Today's NBA Betting Pick - Mavericks vs. Heat
So far this season, the Mavericks and Heat have played just one time, with the Mavericks picking a 25 point win (115-90). Going into the game, Dallas was the 2.0 point underdog, giving them an upset win over the Heat. The over/under line in this game was set at 218.5 points, which the teams surpassed.
In the Mavericks' previous five games as the favorite, they have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 3-2 against the spread. Across their last three road games, they are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 straight up. Their previous ten games have an over/under mark of 2-8 with an average of 227 points per contest.
Across Miami's last five games at home, they have an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight-up. As the favorite, the Heat are 2-1 straight up on an average scoring differential of -9 points per game. This has led to an ATS mark of 2-1. Their previous ten games have ended in an average of 221 points per game and an over/under mark of 6-4.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: MIA -1
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 224.5
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