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Sonny Gray 2023 Player Outlook: Lack Of Health Continues To Limit Fantasy Value
For the second straight season, Sonny Gray missed more than fifty days in total across multiple IL stints, but he was effective when healthy. Gray had an 8-5 W-L record, 3.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 117 Ks (119.2 IP) but interestingly, Gray's 3.66 xFIP was the same as it was in 2021 when he had a 4.19 ERA across 135.1 IP. Gray's average fastball velocity has been declining regularly since 2013 and last year's 92.1 MPH was a career-low, which contributed to his 24.0% K% being it's lowest since 2018. Gray also had a career-low 44.4% GB% and his 39.8% HardHit% (which was in the 30th percentile) was the highest it's been since 2016. The Twins' ballpark was one of the most pitcher friendliest which helped Gray keep a solid ERA but along with his 3.66 xFIP, Gray's 3.67 xERA and 3.73 SIERA suggest he'll need to make improvements to produce a sub-3.50 ERA again in 2023. All things considered, Gray's ~225 ADP is reasonable as his numbers should be solid even with some regression. But we shouldn't expect more than 150 innings and given Gray's numbers and health are trending in the wrong way, Gray only makes for a solid back-end starting pitcher in fantasy. Asking for anything more than that will lead to disappointment.
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