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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills, another article in our weekly series of free NFL betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NFL betting breakdown article is for Sunday, January 8th, 2023.
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Today's Betting Overview - Patriots @ Bills
The Patriots take on the Bills on Sunday, January 8th at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NFL games throughout the 2022 season.
- Matchup: New England Patriots (8-8) vs. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
- Date: Sunday, January 8th, 2023
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
Today's NFL Sportsbook Odds - Patriots @ Bills
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New England Patriots - NFL Betting Analysis
This week, the Patriots will look to keep things rolling after picking up a 23-21 win over their division rival, the Miami Dolphins. New England did not cover the spread in their win, as they entered as the -3.0 point favorites. In terms of the over-under, the teams combined for 44 points, which surpassed the betting line of 41. In their win over Miami, the Patriots held a 2-point lead heading into the 4th quarter at 16-14. Through 16 games, the Patriots have an ATS record of 7-8-1. So far, they have an over-under record of 7-9. This week's betting total of 42.5 is right in line with their previous games.
Heading into this week's matchup, the Patriots' offense is averaging 21.3 points per game, placing them 17th in the NFL. This week, the team is matched up against the league's 1st ranked defense, allowing just 17.5 points per contest. Look for the Patriots to struggle in the passing game this week, as not only have they struggled to move the ball through the air, but they are facing a secondary ranked 5th in passer rating allowed. On the ground, New England could have a tough time moving the ball, as they come into the game as the 23rd-ranked team in rush yards per game. In addition, they are facing a defense that has done a good job stopping the run.
Buffalo Bills - NFL Betting Analysis
The Bills head into week 18, looking for another win, as they picked up 22 point victory over the Chicago Bears (35-13). Not only did Buffalo walk home with the win, but they also covered the spread as -8.5 point favorites. Going into the game, the over-under total was set at 40 points, which the teams surpassed. On their way to picking up a 22-point win, Buffalo held a 11-point lead heading into the 4th quarter at 21-10. Through 15 games, the Bills have an ATS record of 6-8-1. So far, they have an over-under record of 5-10. This week's betting total of 42.5 is lower than the line in their previous games.
As the Bills prepare to take on New England, they have played well on offense, ranking 4th in points per game at 28.0. Even though they have a tough matchup against the league's 6th-ranked defense, look for Buffalo to continue their strong offensive play. This season, Buffalo has been one of the better passing teams in the league, averaging 259.5 yards per game through the air. Although the Patriots' defense has been able to limit opposing teams in the passing game, Buffalo should still be able to continue to generate big plays through the pass. A key matchup to watch through the game is if Buffalo will be able to run the ball with their usual effectiveness. Even though they are averaging 142.8 yards per game on the ground, they have a tough matchup against the New England rush defense.
Today's NFL Betting Pick - Patriots vs. Bills
Over the last 5 matchups between New England and Buffalo, the Bills have won 4 of the last 5 games. The two teams have combined to average 44.6 points per game in their last 5 meetings. In game 1 of this year's series between the two teams, the Bills came away with a 10-24 win over the Patriots. In addition to picking up the win, the Bills covered the spread as -4.5 point favorites. Both the Patriots and Bills picked up win in the 2021-2022 season. New England won 14-10, while Buffalo picked up a 33-21 victory.
The Buffalo Bills have performed well vs the spread in recent games, going 4-1-0. The Patriots' offense has averaged 14.2 points per game over the 5 most recent meetings with Buffalo, compared to the Bills at 30.4.
Across their previous 3 regular season games, the Patriots have a straight-up record of just 1-2. In a similar fashion, the team's record vs the spread in these games was just 0-3. Their over-under record in this span was 2-1.
Across the Patriots' last 3 road games, the team averaged 25.67 points per game while allowing 25.33. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 1-2 straight-up.
Through their last 3 games, the Bills have a record of 3-0. This also includes going 1-2 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1
Buffalo has played well in their previous 3 home games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 27.67 points per game while allowing 21.33. The team's also performed well vs the spread at 0-2-1.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: Bills -4.5
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 42.5
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