RADIO
Dylan Cease 2023 Player Outlook: An Elite Arm, But A Concerning Walk Rate
2 years agoCease was a true breakout in 2022, posting a sick 2.20 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP on his way to finishing second in Cy Young voting. He stymied hitters all year long, posting a .255 xwOBA while posting a top-ten strikeout rate of 30.5%. The strikeout rate is backed up by an elite swinging-strike rate (15.8%, sixth-best in the league), and with two great pitches in his arsenal (four-seamer and slider), we should expect the high strikeout rate to stick around indefinitely. The worrisome part of the profile is the walk rate of 10.2%. Only eight pitchers with 20+ GS in 2022 had a worse walk rate, and that does make the 1.11 WHIP a bit harder to believe in. This has long been a problem for him, as his career walk rate sits at 10.6%. I'm not sure we can really count on serious improvement there in 2023, which should leave us pessimistic that Cease can put up another Cy Young-caliber season. He's young enough (27) to still improve on that, and having a strikeout rate above 30% wipes out plenty of those free passes, but I'm not convinced Cease should be drafted in the top five at SP, which he currently is. You may be better off focusing on pitchers with lower walk rates to serve as your fantasy team's ace.
