2 years agoChicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ had arguably his best full offensive season in 2022. He set a career-high with a .271 batting average, hit 17 bombs, stole nine bases, and had 72 runs and RBI. Many of Happ's metrics weren't pretty, but he still hit the ball with force consistently (65th percentile average exit velocity), and his 6.5% barrel rate almost has to progress towards his career rate of 10.3%. Ground balls have been a problem for a while, but he still hit 54 homers over 363 games from 2020-2022 while running a ground ball rate above 47%. Surpassing 20 homers should be easy next year. Fantasy managers shouldn't be drafting Happ for his batting average, considering his .249 career mark and .239 xBA from this season. However, he made significant strides in his plate discipline, posting a whiff rate under 30% for the first time (27.2%) and was more aggressive in the zone (71.7% zone swing rate), leading to his lowest strikeout rate as a big-leaguer, 23.2%. Further, with the shift ban coming into place next year, he can crack the .250 mark, as Happ's pulled grounders 57.6% of the time over his six seasons. And although the 28-year-old's never swiped more than nine bases, the former top prospect's an above-average runner (66th percentile sprint speed), so he shouldn't be a zero in that category. There's little to show that Happ can't reach his Steamer projections: .246, 23 HRs, 77 runs, 80 RBI, and nine steals across 149 games. It's worth his 158 ADP, and he should provide more than Hunter Renfroe, who's going eight picks earlier.--Spencer Seguin