2 years agoToronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed up his MVP-caliber 2021 season with another solid, yet disappointing, 2022 campaign. His .274/.339/.480 (132 wRC+) slash line was far from his .311/.401/.601 (166 wRC+) line a year ago. He hit 32 homers, down from 48, drove in 97, scored 90 runs, and stole eight bases. His walk rate took a big drop (12.3% to 8.2%), and his strikeout rate was a bit higher (15.8% to 16.4%) after his chase rate rose from 24.6% in '21 to a career-high 30.5%. However, he improved his whiff rate to a career-best 24.4% and increased his zone contact by 1.9% (83.8%). And although he went back to hitting the ball into the ground too much (52.3% ground ball rate), he was still mashing balls with an 11.2% barrel rate (79th percentile), 92.8 MPH average exit velocity (96th percentile), and 50.4% hard-hit rate (94th percentile). Turning a few more grounders into fly balls and being more selective as he was in the past would help add more home runs and points to his batting average next season. Further, his extra two steals from last season isn't something to ignore, especially considering all eight came in the second half. There might have been a change in mentality that we could see carried into next season. Guerrero Jr. probably won't put up his 2021 numbers, but he still hits in a great lineup, and his 12 ADP is fair given the .292 average and 40 home runs that Steamer projects in 2023.--Spencer Seguin