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Alejandro Kirk 2023 Outlook: Too Many Red Flags for a Top 100 Player
2 years agoAlejandro Kirk enjoyed a breakout 2022 campaign, slashing .285/.372/.415 with 14 HR in 541 PAs with catcher eligibility. His 11.6 BB% exceeded his 10.7 K%, and both metrics were supported by his 5.8 SwStr% and minuscule 26.3% chase rate. Unfortunately, Kirk's contact quality metrics indicate that he might struggle to deliver a satisfactory encore. His 30.8 FB% makes it difficult to expect the roughly 20 HR most projection systems are calling for, and his 9.4 IFFB% is relatively high for a guy who isn't looking for airborne contact. Kirk's 19.2 LD% is below average as well, and grounders aren't the answer for someone who runs like a catcher. Kirk's xBA was only .278 in 2022, so he might not be a lock for anything higher. Kirk's contact-oriented profile doesn't fit the cleanup role at all, especially in a lineup with proven boppers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Kirk could therefore lose his spot and the counting stats that go with it. Catcher isn't the wasteland in 2023 that it has been historically, and there's little reason to take Kirk at his ADP of 99.55 due to position scarcity alone. There are too many red flags here.
