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It is once again that time of the week for our rest-of-season series for a look at my top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. Some may be drifting to football and wavering on baseball but this is when your focus must stay sharp. Join me for the Week 13 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
We've seen several prospects get hit around in the majors. Let's see what we've got moving forward with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues, and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. This week we've got a handful of intriguing pitchers to discuss, plus five young arms who may or may not greatly impact the rest of 2024. Please note most stats here are gathered before Tuesday's games. Time to leap into my top 101 SPs!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Tyler Glasnow broke the curse and notched his first victory since May 4! Blanking the 2024 Royals over seven strong with three hits scattered and nine strikeouts is glorious. He remains the No. 1 arm and kudos to anyone who bought low on lesser fantasy teams who overthink the 5x5 rank value. He’s also walked one batter in four of his last six outings.
-Zack Wheeler continues to avoid big trouble with softer contact. Over the last 30 days, his 32.6% hard-hit rate (per Statcast) ranks 14th out of 89 qualified SPs, which backs a .225 BABIP in the same window (11th lowest). This has helped maintain a 1.09 WHIP over the last month despite more balls in play. His 22.4% K rate is 43rd and 14.4% K-BB is 52nd. Those need to pick back up to earn such a lofty slot, though his track record does count for a lot.
-Gerrit Cole is undoubtedly drawing a spotlight with his return. Please be cautious in evaluating his first MLB outing in 2024 as he shakes off the rust against a stout Orioles team. We will watch his velocities and pitch mixes with great interest. Some of you will pounce on buying low if he falters while others will scramble to sell high if he looks good. That is what makes our market economics so fun!
-Bobby Miller is another high-velocity arm who hit the injured list. He’ll make his return in Coors on Wednesday, which isn’t ideal, but most fantasy formats see his value reinforced by wins thanks to Dodger run and bullpen support. We've seen immense upside in a relatively small sample, which is worth a respectable slot for now.
-Max Scherzer will return to the Rangers rotation this weekend. Yes, he is 39 years old coming off of a major injury with recurring neck/back issues in recent seasons. But he still had a 28% strikeout rate amid worse sabermetrics last season, resulting in a 3.77 ERA/1.12 WHIP. That’s still good! It’s just “bad” for Scherzer’s previous decade of dominance. I’d be more bullish on exploring sell-high trades if he comes out swinging compared to Cole or Miller.
Max Scherzer will make his 2024 debut on Saturday starting for the #Rangers
— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) June 18, 2024
-Tanner Bibee has earned more love. Not only does his 32.5% K rate and 28.3% K-BB over the last month rank third out of the 89 qualified SPs (ahead of Paul Skenes and Chris Sale, for instance), but he is one of three SPs with only two barrels allowed in that same window. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Kyle Gibson (!) are the others. The other big-dog K arms, Glasnow and Garrett Crochet, have allowed six and seven, respectively. Whiffs? Strong control? Barrel mitigation? Yes, please. I feel like he should be higher, dang it.
-Walker Buehler going to Coors was more about hoping LAD run support would do enough for the win but that didn’t happen. Losing Charlie Blackmon on a hit-by-pitch after getting the 0-2 count to kick the game off set the tone. Three hits led to four runs, so at least it wasn’t the homer problem! Oh, but that would come in the second inning. And the fourth.
Some in your league may still buy on name value, but for me, he’s entering that cheap streaming category where I just hope he does enough through five for a win as a Dodger. James Paxton territory is not where one wants to be! And now it seems Buehler may get time to figure it out:
Both Walker Buehler and #Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hinted that it's possible the right-hander could get a blow, which could allow him to get a reset and work on some things without doing it in big league games. They're still talking through it, nothing has been determined.
— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) June 19, 2024
-Marcus Stroman has career-worst marks in strikeout rate (17.1%) and walk rate (10.6%), yet he’s skirted by with a 3.08 ERA. His 4.1% K-BB in the last 30 days would be worst among all qualified SPs if it weren’t for Tyler Anderson (0.8%!!!), with the rest of the bottom five being JP Sears, Dakota Hudson, and Trevor Rogers. It’s not great company. (Two other notable names near the bottom are Jared Jones at 6% and Jesus Luzardo at 6.8%.)
Stro’s 4.77 FIP is nearly a full run above any previous year’s mark and his 50% ground-ball rate is another career-low mark. Fewer whiffs, more walks, a 13-percentage-point rise in fly balls…this all frightens me. At least the Yankees generate wins!
-Erick Fedde’s reclamation project would be getting far more play if it weren’t occurring on the underperforming White Sox. He had a forgettable six MLB seasons before reinventing himself in Korea, winning the KBO Triple Crown for pitching. The overall 3.09 ERA doesn’t have anything dazzling behind it, but the FIP/xFIP/SIERA all sit around 3.50 thanks to a steady four-pitch mix without a weak link.
That changeup is tough on lefties while the sweeper gets the righties to chase. Sometimes the cutter command leaks out into the heart of the plate but we weren’t hoping for a fantasy ace, just a steady, undervalued arm. We got it! Fedde’s 31.2% hard-hit rate over the month might trail Bibee’s, but it’s still ninth best between Justin Steele and Tarik Skubal.
Erick Fedde was great tonight. After giving up 5 hits 1st time around the lineup, was lights out after that. 6 IP 2 ER 6 K he’s the next Merrill Kelly (KBO comeback story)
— Goldschmidt Happened (@GoldyHappens) June 16, 2024
Late Tuesday addition: And how about his teammate Jonathan Cannon? The 6-foot-6 righty has now thrown 18 ⅔ IP of one-run ball with a 15:2 K:BB in three June appearances. But this comes after a rough six-start stretch at Triple-A with a 6.43 ERA. He had a 5.77 ERA/1.57 WHIP in ~50 IP at Double-A in 2023 as well, so tread carefully.
And finally, I am once again begging Tampa Bay to stick Aaron Civale in the bullpen and get Shane Baz to the bigs. Civale fell apart when Minnesota got a second look at him, which continues the trend.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 13
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 1 | $44.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | 2 | $42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 3 | $42.0 | 43.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 4 | $42.0 | 43.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 2 | Chris Sale | 5 | $40.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 2 | Cole Ragans | 6 | $37.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 2 | Max Fried | 7 | $37.0 | 35.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 8 | $35.5 | 37.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Shota Imanaga | 9 | $35.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 3 | Gerrit Cole | 10 | $35.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | 3 | Garrett Crochet | 11 | $34.0 | 30.0 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 3 | Joe Ryan | 12 | $34.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Logan Webb | 13 | $33.0 | 31.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 14 | $33.0 | 30.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 3 | Paul Skenes | 15 | $31.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -5 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 16 | $31.0 | 34.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 3 | Kevin Gausman | 17 | $30.0 | 31.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| N/A | 3 | Zac Gallen | 18 | $30.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 3 | George Kirby | 19 | $30.0 | 29.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Grayson Rodriguez | 20 | $30.0 | 28.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Logan Gilbert | 21 | $29.0 | 26.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 4 | Tanner Houck | 22 | $26.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Ranger Suarez | 23 | $26.0 | 25.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Jack Flaherty | 24 | $25.5 | 23.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -12 | 4 | Jared Jones | 25 | $23.0 | 33.0 | -10.0 ▼ |
| -12 | 4 | Freddy Peralta | 26 | $23.0 | 32.5 | -9.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 4 | Dylan Cease | 27 | $22.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Luis Gil | 28 | $22.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 4 | 4 | MacKenzie Gore | 29 | $21.0 | 17.5 | 3.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Justin Steele | 30 | $21.0 | 17.5 | 3.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 4 | Nick Pivetta | 31 | $20.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 12 | 4 | Tanner Bibee | 32 | $17.5 | 14.5 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 5 | Carlos Rodon | 33 | $17.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 34 | $17.5 | 21.0 | -3.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 5 | Bobby Miller | 35 | $17.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 1 | 5 | Ronel Blanco | 36 | $17.5 | 17.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 5 | Max Scherzer | 37 | $17.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -9 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 38 | $16.5 | 21.0 | -4.5 ▼ |
| -4 | 5 | Bryce Miller | 39 | $16.5 | 17.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 5 | Reynaldo Lopez | 40 | $16.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -5 | 5 | Bailey Ober | 41 | $16.0 | 17.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 5 | Michael King | 42 | $15.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -3 | 5 | Bryan Woo | 43 | $15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -5 | 5 | Seth Lugo | 44 | $14.5 | 16.5 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 5 | Cristopher Sanchez | 45 | $14.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 5 | Ryan Pepiot | 46 | $14.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -9 | 6 | Zach Eflin | 47 | $12.0 | 16.5 | -4.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 6 | Kutter Crawford | 48 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 7 | 6 | Taj Bradley | 49 | $12.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -3 | 6 | Hunter Greene | 50 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 6 | Nathan Eovaldi | 51 | $11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 6 | Nick Lodolo | 52 | $10.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -3 | 6 | Yusei Kikuchi | 53 | $10.0 | 12.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -5 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 54 | $10.0 | 12.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -12 | 7 | Jesus Luzardo | 55 | $9.0 | 15.0 | -6.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 7 | Gavin Stone | 56 | $9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -5 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 57 | $8.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 7 | Matt Waldron | 58 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 4 | 7 | Hunter Brown | 59 | $8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 7 | Erick Fedde | 60 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 7 | Mitch Keller | 61 | $8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 7 | Jake Irvin | 62 | $8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 7 | Jose Berrios | 63 | $8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 8 | Tylor Megill | 64 | $7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -5 | 8 | Reese Olson | 65 | $6.0 | 8.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 66 | $6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 8 | Jordan Hicks | 67 | $5.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 8 | Cade Povich | 68 | $5.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 15 | 8 | Kyle Gibson | 69 | $5.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 ▲ |
| -12 | 8 | Walker Buehler | 70 | $7.0 | 8.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 8 | Jose Soriano | 71 | $5.0 | 5.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 8 | Spencer Arrighetti | 72 | $4.5 | 5.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 8 | Brandon Pfaadt | 73 | $4.0 | 5.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 8 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 74 | $4.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -3 | 8 | Javier Assad | 75 | $4.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -5 | 8 | Braxton Garrett | 76 | $4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -4 | 8 | Jon Gray | 77 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 9 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 78 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Charlie Morton | 79 | $4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 9 | Andrew Heaney | 80 | $3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 9 | Mitchell Parker | 81 | $3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 9 | Cal Quantrill | 82 | $2.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 9 | DJ Herz | 83 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 9 | Jonathan Cannon | 84 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 12 | 9 | Keaton Winn | 85 | $2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -8 | 9 | Brayan Bello | 86 | $2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -13 | 9 | Zack Littell | 87 | $1.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 ▼ |
| 3 | 9 | Hogan Harris | 88 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 10 | Tyler Anderson | 89 | $1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 6 | 10 | Miles Mikolas | 90 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 10 | Jordan Montgomery | 91 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Yariel Rodriguez | 92 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Alec Marsh | 93 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Michael Lorenzen | 94 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Tobias Myers | 96 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | James Paxton | 95 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 10 | Chris Paddack | 97 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -10 | 10 | Cooper Criswell | 98 | $1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -24 | 10 | Cole Irvin | 99 | $1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| N/A | 10 | Carson Spiers | 100 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Colin Rea | 101 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
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