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We have a full slate of MLB baseball on tap on this fine Wednesday and it's an all-day affair! The D-backs and Cardinals get us started at 1:15 p.m. ET before the Padres and Rockies wrap up today's action beginning at 8:40 p.m. ET. Let's enjoy the day while nailing some bets in the process!
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I'm Brenton Kemp and I continuously look forward to delivering quality MLB betting advice throughout the season. Let's get to it and have a look at some value for games on April 24 and see if we can come out on the right side of the ledger!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers at Rays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TB (-120)
DET: Jack Flaherty | TB: Tyler Alexander
Game Time: 6:50 p.m. EDT
The Detroit Tigers will look for a three-game sweep of the hosting Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday as they give the ball to right-hander Jack Flaherty who should see some positive regression moving forward.
The 28-year-old has worked to a 4.44 ERA on the season but just about everything points to positive regression, such as his 2.90 xFIP, 2.74 SIERA, 29.1% K%, 3.9% BB%, and 25.2% K-BB%. The long ball has bitten him a bit with a 1.48 HR/9 through four starts but he has largely been excellent and the recipient of some poor luck in his young Tigers tenure.
Jack Flaherty's 9th and 10th Ks pic.twitter.com/hs5h2iKHd9
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 20, 2024
As for the Rays, it's former Tiger Tyler Alexander getting the ball. The left-hander has made two starts and four appearances with the Rays so far, working to a 4.79 ERA in that time. Unlike Flaherty, Alexander isn't likely to see improved results moving forward given his 5.00 xFIP, 4.55 SIERA, and subpar 11.1% K-BB%. He has once again been hurt by the long ball with a 2.18 HR/9 on the young season while he owns a poor 1.59 HR/9 for his career.
The Tigers' offense has largely scuffled early on and has hit for very little power despite hitting three homers in Tuesday's 4-2 win. At the same time, the Rays haven't been great themselves, sitting in a share of 23rd with a .299 wOBA off of right-handed pitching. The Tigers have handled lefties better than they have righties.
Based on the starting pitching matchup and similar offensive production, the value is on the Tigers to complete the sweep tonight at The Trop.
Pick: Tigers moneyline (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners at Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX (-122)
SEA: Bryce Miller | TEX: Jon Gray
Game Time: 8:05 p.m. EDT
It's an AL West tilt tonight in Texas as the Rangers play host to the visiting Seattle Mariners looking to avenge Tuesday night's 4-0 shutout loss.
They'll look to do so behind right-hander Jon Gray who has been solid to begin the season. The veteran has worked to a 3.15 ERA while his 3.66 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA, and 28.4% K% are all rock-solid. His elevated 11.4% BB% needs to come down and the smart money is on that it does given his 7.9% career mark.
As for the Mariners, it's another righty in youngster Bryce Miller. The 25-year-old has been fantastic with a tidy 1.85 ERA through four starts, and while his peripherals are rather similar to Gray's, they do spell regression. His 3.51 xFIP and 3.49 SIERA are very good but are also nearly two runs above his surface ERA. Additionally, he has benefitted from a .172 BABIP, a figure that is sure to rise sharply moving forward.
When we look at these offenses, it's the Rangers boasting the advantage against right-handed pitching. Their .327 wOBA off righties sits seventh in the league while the Mariners check in at a share of 17th with a .308 wOBA. Of course, everyone expects this Rangers offense to rake once again this season.
One area where Seattle holds the advantage is in the bullpen as they sport the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.60. The Rangers have scuffled in this department, sitting 23rd with a 4.59 bullpen ERA.
Nonetheless, look for the Rangers' offense to deliver some regression for Miller on this Wednesday evening while evening up the series at one game apiece.
Pick: Rangers moneyline (-122, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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