RADIO
Every week there are some big unknowns in fantasy football when it comes to breakout candidates, player usage and offensive/defensive schemes.
The first week of the NFL season serves up the greatest amount of uncertainty as all of the many different projections and predictions get put to the test. Here I will take a look at three currently unanswered storylines in which the outcome will have a major effect on the fantasy season.
1. Will Jake Locker establish himself as a capable starting quarterback in the NFL?
I have been fairly bullish on both Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter leading up to the season. Kendall Wright had a really nice PPR season last year, but in order for both players to succeed we are going to need a big step forward from their quarterback Jake Locker. An effective running game with Shonn Greene and Bishop Sankey would go a long way to open things up for Locker as well.
Game 1 is a pretty big test at Kansas City. The Chiefs defense is full of playmakers and was among the leaders in interceptions and sacks last year. They allowed quarterbacks to score 20+ fantasy points four times last year, one of them was at Tennessee. Unfortunately it was against Ryan Fitzpatrick and not Jake Locker.
I doubt Locker will have a great game in week one, but I'm hoping he shows enough to make me feel good about Wright and Hunter for the overall 2014 fantasy football season. Should Locker get injured again this year, the backups (Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger) are a lot worse than they were last year.
2. Is Alfred Morris going to continue to be a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 under a new coach?
There has been some concern among the fantasy community that Morris will take a big step back this year without Mike Shanahan. After all he was Shanahan's find, a diamond in the rough as a 6th round pick. Following his excellent rookie year his ADP was 1.11 for the 2013 season.
Heading into 2014 his ADP is 3.01. While part of that round+ fall is the result of a declined workload and slightly worse season, he still represents one of the safest most reliable picks at the position. So I think it's fair to say the new head coach Jay Gruden plays a part as well. There are some serious concerns by many after Gruden's workhorse back last year BenJarvus Green-Ellis had just 220 carries (Morris had 276, down from 335 the year before). But that was mostly a result of the emergence of Giovani Bernard. In the two years prior to Gio's arrival, BJGE and Cedric Benson both got 270+ carries.
Even if you like Roy Helu (the pass-catching back in WAS) quite a bit, he isn't nearly as good as Bernard is and shouldn't get as many touches. Meanwhile I am pretty confident that Morris is a better runner than either BJGE or Benson. I am not too worried about Morris meeting his carry total from last year (an average of nearly 17 a game) but I will definitely be looking for confirmation in week one.
3. Will the Giants offense be any good at all?
Eli Manning looked horrible this preseason under Ben McAdoo's new offense. According to ProFootballFocus's preseason grades, Eli Manning ranked 98th of 99 quarterbacks to get at least 40 snaps. The two QBs he is sandwiched between (Chandler Harnish and Seth Lobato) are no longer rostered. Yikes.
I'm certain that things will come together at least somewhat during the regular season as the entire offense continues to get more familiar with the offense. Yet there are major questions on the offensive line, and outside of Victor Cruz I am not confident in any WR on the team. Rueben Randle and Eli just don't seem to be on the same page, for whatever reason and Odell Beckham has been out with an injury for some time.
The Lions have a very good defensive line that could create problems for the Giants quickly. Their secondary is nothing special but Eli needs time to get the ball to his receivers. If it's a really bad game (and I can easily see that happening) I will have very serious worries about any Giants fantasy-relevant player throughout the season, including running backs Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams.
