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It's becoming harder and harder to rely on running backs in fantasy football. That could explain why the first round of fantasy drafts is owned by wide receivers this year. Only four running backs (Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs) have an ADP inside the top 12.
As a result, most fantasy managers will walk away with a wide receiver in the first round. That might be a great strategy this season because there are plenty of running backs going in the middle-to-late rounds who have RB1 potential.
So, here are four running backs going outside the top 14 at the position who could finish inside the top 12 in 2024. All these running backs are sleepers heading into the fantasy season, given where they go in drafts.
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Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon is one of my favorite targets in the early-to-middle rounds. Despite being one of the most consistent fantasy running backs over the years, Mixon's ADP has dropped heading into 2024. The 27-year-old is currently going as the RB15 in drafts with an ADP of 47.2, which makes very little sense.
For starters, his landing spot with the Texans is one of the best, and there shouldn't be a huge drop-off in production. Mixon will undoubtedly serve as Houston's RB1 while likely seeing most of the running-back touches. Dameon Pierce might get some touches here and there but don't forget that the young running back lost his starting job last year to Devin Singletary -- who is now with the New York Giants.
Stroud connecting with Joe Mixon in OTA’s!
Mixon could lowkey be a PPR monster this season with the Texans, keep an eye out on him 👀pic.twitter.com/WWI3CiAwhh
— Clutch City Entertainment (@ClutchCityENTX) May 30, 2024
So, there is no reason why Mixon can't build on his 1,410 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns from 2023. He will play on just as good of an offense and should see at least 17 touches every game in Houston's offense. On top of that, the 27-year-old has been one of the most consistent fantasy options since he entered the league in 2017. The veteran has finished inside the top 12 in PPR formats in three straight seasons, including an RB6 finish last year.
There are certainly a bunch of signs that point to Mixon continuing his strong fantasy numbers in 2024. In a new situation, there are some risks, but the Texans didn't trade for him to sit on the bench. Fantasy managers can take the veteran with confidence this year because he has the potential to finish as an RB1 again.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
When running backs hit age 28, things start to trend downward. That was sort of the case for Aaron Jones last season, as he played in a career-low 11 games. Jones missed three games earlier in the year with a hamstring issue and then suffered an MCL sprain that caused him to miss three more games from Week 12 to Week 14.
But assuming he can stay healthy, there is a strong case for Jones to finish as an RB1 in 2024. Aside from missing six games due to those injuries, the veteran actually showed no signs of slowing down on the field. He scored double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats in the final six games of the season (including playoffs) while averaging 17.9 points during that span.
Now, Jones arguably lands in a better spot after signing with the Minnesota Vikings this offseason. The 29-year-old shouldn't split reps with any other running back in Minnesota -- like he did with AJ Dillon in Green Bay -- which should help his overall fantasy numbers in 2024.
AARON JONES! 53 YARDS!
📺: #GBvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/yDUx5ZutVa pic.twitter.com/WZg1zrGVdD— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
With Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy also starting under center this year, look for the Vikings to lean on the veteran even more in the running and passing game. That could result in Jones finishing as a RB1 for the fifth time in six years. The explosive back is currently going as the RB19 in drafts with an ADP of 62.7.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
There are surely a ton of question marks heading into the year for Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard. Will the Titans offense be good enough to support the new back? Will he even be the starter in Tennessee? How will the Titans split reps between Tyjae Spears and Pollard? All those questions explain why the 27-year-old is currently going as the RB23 in drafts.
However, Pollard is actually one of the most underrated fantasy backs due to his potential to finish as an RB1 in 2024. If you look at what the young playmaker did over the last two years, there are a couple of things working in his favor heading into the year.
In 2022, Pollard was in a timeshare with Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas' backfield. The former only played above 50% of the Cowboys' snaps in seven of 14 games in which he and Elliott played together. However, given how efficient he was when on the field, he finished as the RB8 in PPR formats behind 1,378 yards from scrimmage on 232 touches. His stats, though, didn't improve last year as the team's RB1, finishing as the RB14 in PPR formats.
So, I'm not overly concerned with Pollard's landing spot in Tennessee. Spears will surely get his fair share of touches on offense -- like Elliott did during that 2022 season. But there is a path where the 27-year-old can still finish as an RB1 in 2024. If he can get back to rushing for over five yards per carry and being a big-time weapon in the passing game, he can be a sneaky fantasy option this year.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Volume reigns supreme for running backs in fantasy. We saw that play out last year with Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White. White finished as the RB4 in PPR formats while averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game. His 336 touches were a big reason for that high fantasy finish. In 2024, Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White could be that back who benefits from that type of volume.
There's no doubt the Raiders want to run the ball a lot, according to head coach Antonio Pierce. With Josh Jacobs now gone, look for Las Vegas to lean on White heavily in 2024. In four starts last year, the 24-year-old averaged 21 carries for 99.3 rush yards per game from Week 15 to Week 18. In three of those contests, the young back also topped over 100 yards from scrimmage.
They’ve got that “dawg” in them—Zamir White might end up having a special year courtesy of Andre James and the Raiders’ O-line. pic.twitter.com/CbrXMclFIo
— RaiderRamble.com™ (@TheRaiderRamble) June 6, 2024
So, things are certainly trending up for him entering the 2024 season. The Raiders also only added Alexander Mattison this offseason to compete with White, but that shouldn't take away too many opportunities from the 24-year-old. Given his potentially high involvement on offense and in the run game, he is a sneaky RB1 candidate in 2024. White is currently going as the RB26 in drafts.
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