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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The early part of the MLB season has been good to me, so I'm looking to build off that momentum and hit the ground running as we progress into the 2024 campaign. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some exciting matchups today. The pitching mix offers a deep selection of reliable aces and worthwhile midrange and punt-play starters, undoubtedly leading to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative with your picks today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/23/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Skenes vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($10K DK, $10.4K FD)
Paul Skenes' major league career is only seven starts deep, but he has already established himself as one of the game's best arms. The rookie sports an outstanding 2.75 xERA and a 2.15 xFIP so far. Skenes' dominance includes a .266 xwOBA and a 34.4% strikeout rate. He has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in every outing this season and struck out at least seven hitters in all but one appearance. On a deep pitching slate, Skenes stands head-and-shoulders above the rest as the day's top option.
The Tampa Bay Rays bring one of baseball's most disappointing offenses into play. They are plating just four runs per game on the season. Those struggles include a subpar 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .130 ISO and a 23.5% strikeout rate. There is no reason to believe Skenes will not have his way with this Rays lineup today.
Reese Olson vs. Chicago White Sox ($6.5K DK, $8.3K FD)
There are plenty of good pitching options on this slate, but Reese Olson is the go-to for salary-saving purposes. The 24-year-old has looked strong during his sophomore season, posting a 3.51 xERA and a 3.63 xFIP over 14 starts. There is nothing exceptionally flashy about Olson's pitching profile, but he does an excellent job at limiting power, as evidenced by his .360 xSLG and 5.2% barrel rate surrendered. Olson only strikes out a middling 21.2% of hitters, though his 27.6% whiff rate and 32% chase rate suggest he is due for positive regression in that area.
The Chicago White Sox have owned and operated baseball's worst offense in 2024, scoring a league-worst 3.1 runs per game. The incompetence includes a horrible 76 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, a .126 ISO, and a 23.6% strikeout rate. Reese Olson couldn't hope for a more ideal opponent.
Also Consider: Sonny Gray, Nick Lodolo, Bryce Miller, Jonathan Cannon
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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. - SS, KC vs. Max Scherzer ($6.4K DK, $4.2K FD)
Bobby Witt Jr. warrants little introduction. The 24-year-old sports an outstanding .314/.362/.537 slash line with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 149 wRC+. Witt's success includes some eye-popping advanced metrics, such as a .606 xSLG, .325 xBA, 14.3% barrel rate, 48.6% hard-hit rate, and a 92.5 MPH average exit velocity. There is a case to be made that Witt is due for positive regression.
Max Scherzer deserves all the respect in the world, but don't let his reputation alone scare you off playing Kansas City Royals bats. Scherzer is 39-years-old coming off an uncharacteristically middling 2023 campaign. Over 27 starts, he produced a career-worst 4.02 xFIP and his worst ERA since 2011. That's not to say Scherzer won't be a decent pitcher anymore, but it should help us step outside the shadow of his dominant expectations. Further, Scherzer is fresh off an injury, and his minor-league rehab assignment was far from a success, posting a 4.91 ERA over three appearances.
Ryan Mountcastle - 1B, BAL vs. Framber Valdez ($4.8K DK, $3.1K FD)
With the Baltimore Orioles facing off against a lefty today, we would be remiss not to highlight the team's notorious southpaw killer, Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle owns a career .509 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching, including a .230 ISO and a 131 wRC+. He will also benefit from playing this game in Minute Maid Park, which is significantly more friendly to right-handed power than Camden Yards.
Framber Valdez is not nearly as dominant as his reputation would suggest. Through 12 starts, he has posted a 4.04 xERA, down from an uninspiring 4.33 xERA in 2023. Opposing hitters have generated a 46.5% hard-hit rate and a 91.5 MPH average exit velocity against Valdez. He is capable of much uglier numbers than we see on the surface.
Orelvis Martinez - 2B, TOR vs. Triston McKenzie ($2K DK, $2.2K FD)
Orelvis Martinez possesses an unusually high ceiling for the flat minimum price. The 22-year-old has just one game played in his major-league career, though he is the second-ranked prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system, per MLB Pipeline. Martinez's primary appeal is his prolific 60-grade power stroke. He slugged .523 and mashed 16 home runs in Triple-A this season, following a 28-home run performance in 2023.
FIRST @MLB hit!
Congrats, Orelvis Martinez 👏 pic.twitter.com/SKhfs9wpgB
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) June 22, 2024
Triston McKenzie's return from UCL injury has not been terribly successful. Through 14 starts, he carries a 4.98 xERA and a 5.23 xFIP. McKenzie has been battered by opposing hitters, surrendering a .464 xSLG, 11.9% barrel rate, and a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity. It is well within the range of possibilities for Martinez to take McKenzie deep today.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Marcell Ozuna - OF, ATL vs. Nestor Cortes ($5.9K DK, $4K FD)
Marcell Ozuna has carried the Atlanta Braves offense all season long. He is slashing .312/..389/.598 with 21 home runs and a 171 wRC+. Ozuna's underlying numbers are debatably even more impressive, including a .645 xSLG, 18.4% barrel rate, 53.9% hard-hit rate, and a .433 xwOBA.
Nestor Cortes isn't the most vulnerable pitcher on this slate, but this is still an opportunity. Opposing batters have generated a 44.6% hard-hit rate and a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity. Right-handed hitters are particularly effective against Cortes, slugging .410 with 12 home runs off him this season.
Riley Greene - OF, DET vs. Jonathan Cannon ($4.9K DK, $3.2K FD)
Riley Greene has hit his stride this month, posting a .962 OPS and a 167 wRC+ so far in June. Overall, he's up to a .838 OPS with 14 home runs for the season. That includes a .493 xSLG, 14.2% barrel rate, 46.8% hard-hit rate, .354 xwOBA, and a 91 MPH average exit velocity.
Jonathan Cannon has exceeded expectations through his six major league appearances, but the sample size is small enough to be unconvinced. He posted a 5.50 ERA in Triple-A to start the year and a 5.77 ERA in Double-A last season. If we are putting stock in Cannon's early MLB results, then we should also understand that left-handed hitters are slugging .661 against him.
Wyatt Langford - OF, TEX vs. Alec Marsh ($3.4K DK, $3K FD)
Wyatt Langford's preseason hype has worn off significantly following a cold start to the season. but the rookie is starting to find his footing. Langford has posted five multi-hit performances in his last nine games, including five extra-base hits and five stolen bases. Fortunately, his price tag has not adjusted yet, and Langford remains an excellent value play.
WYATT LANGFORD GRAND SLAM! pic.twitter.com/FcDzhQktJk
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 22, 2024
Alec Marsh will be a preferred pitcher to target against today. Over 13 starts, he sports a mediocre 4.63 xERA. Those struggles include surrendering some ugly batted-ball metrics, such as a .472 xSLG, 10.4% barrel rate, and a 42.8% hard-hit rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Texas Rangers vs. Alec Marsh
- Favorite Plays: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford
2. Baltimore Orioles vs. Framber Valdez
- Favorite Plays: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman
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