RADIO
Well, that was a lot of surprises last week and a much-needed set of good showings for XFL teams against the USFL. In what seemed to be a horrible week for everyone, I started 2-0 after the Battlehawks game and fell to 2-6 by the end of the weekend. Ouch. I am going to have to readjust to the fact that the higher-volume passing offenses really seemed to win the day in Week 4 except, surprisingly, for the Arlington Renegades against in-state rival Houston.
Scooby "Shark Dog" Wright has officially retired. A bitter-sweet, reflective moment for all Spring Football fans. This week, we have to toe the line between readjusting for the Week 4 results while making sure not to overcorrect against the principles we have come to rely on and turn in the complete opposite direction. The fun part is that with all of the wacky Week 4 results, most teams are still very much in the postseason hunt, and as injuries and lineup adjustments continue to roll in, rest assured that there is plenty of wackiness still left in store.
With that, let's get down to it once again and discuss the best bets for all of the Week 5 UFL action.
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Power Rankings
- Birmingham Stallions (+130 for the title--looking great)
- St. Louis Battlehawks (+200)
- San Antonio Brahmas (+600)
- D.C. Defenders (+750)
- Michigan Panthers (+1300--let's check out this offense with a full game by Danny Etling)
- Houston Roughnecks (+3000--still life in this yet)
- Arlington Renegades (+3500--this one is still doable if things start falling their way)
- Memphis Showboats (+1800--one of the numbers that I think has little merit at this point)
Week 5 Picks
Birmingham Stallions at Houston Roughnecks (Saturday, April 27th, at 7 PM EDT)
Birmingham (-7.5), Over 41.5
The Houston Roughnecks are no longer ranked worst in the league by my account after last week's victory over the Arlington Renegades. Simply put, this defense has been solid all year long--but with Reid Sinnett looking more than competent at QB, they gradually looked better and better. As I said numerous times--this is very much a different team with Mark Thompson on the field.
Of all things, the biggest weakness for the Roughnecks now seems to be their coaching, but it didn't stop them from getting their first win last week over Bob Stoops and the Renegades. As for Birmingham, last week was a doozy, as they had to win at the buzzer via field goal over the D.C. Defenders in a rainy game started by Matt Corral. Adrian Martinez (thankfully) will be getting the start this week, and even though RB C.J. Marable is out, Birmingham has more than enough offensive weapons to make up the difference, and the announcement of Scooby Wright's retirement is definitely an extra punch of motivation going into Saturday's matchup.
Once again, we have to deal with these nonsense same-start-time games, so make sure you plan out how you can catch both games. I think the Stallions got enough of a scare last week that this is one they will be awake for. As tough as the Roughnecks defense is, I don't think they will have much of an answer for the legs of Adrian Martinez. Being out Toby Johnson will be another hit to the Houston defense, and so I think that this will once again be a game that Birmingham controls, but I think Mark Thompson will provide for several Roughnecks scoring opportunities. I see a final score range of 28-17 to 33-14, so go back to laying points with the Stallions and take the over on Saturday night.
San Antonio Brahmas at Arlington Renegades (Saturday, April 27th, at 7 PM EDT)
San Antonio (-2), Over 42.5, Renegades ML (+110?)
What a contrast of Week 4 results going into this in-state rivalry matchup. The Arlington Renegades didn't look like a bad team on their rough road to 0-3, but last week, they just looked like a bad team. Getting worked like that by Houston and the Perez-Cannella connection looking so broken, this has to be a locker room in a state of flux. It is clear now that while this is largely the make-up of Arlington's 2023 XFL Championship roster, every other team in the league managed to improve their roster, and Arlington now just seems like a team out-gunned.
The Brahmas, on the other hand, spit in the face of all of their detractors last week. They improved to 3-1 on the year, and it is clear that Quinten Dormady is already a massive upgrade at quarterback over Chase Garbers. Garbers was able to do well in a gimmicky set, but Dormady can sling all over the field and makes very effective use of his legs.
Neither team will be too impacted by injuries. Luis Perez and Cody Latimer are good to go--there is still the absence of Anthony McFarland, who will be sorely missed in the Brahmas backfield. This is a tough one to call. The rivalry factor is definitely important for Arlington at home, and after so many bad results, you have to think that this team is due for one after looking very serviceable in the first three weeks.
A.J. Smith has been candid about how fired up he is to beat the Renegades and said he is going right after Donald Payne and the Arlington defense this week. As long as they don't get too cute as a result of that motivation, that sounds like a point for San Antonio. If you think that the Renegades are simply due for one, +110 on the ML isn't bad. As for me--it has proven wrong to fade San Antonio at this point. I think that they win a shootout in the range of 28-24 to 31-27. So, lay with the Brahmas and go over 42.5.
St. Louis Battlehawks at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, April 28th, at 12 PM EDT)
Battlehawks (-3), Under 46.5
At 3-1, the only team that has been able to stifle the St. Louis Battlehawks was the defensively stout Michigan Panthers in Week 1. Since then, the Battlehawks have passed every test, and although all-purpose leader Darrius Shepherd and Mataeo Durant are out, Jahcour Pearson and Jacob Saylors have been fantastic mid-season boosts for the St. Louis offense. You could look back on their victories now over the Showboats and Renegades to question the true strength of this team, but the 31-24 win over San Antonio at least solidifies the fact that this team is as exactly as good as we thought they were at exactly we thought they were.
The D.C. Defenders continue to astonish me. At 2-2, they managed to look like a bad team even in some of their wins, and I can't tell exactly what I think that this team is good at. They beat Arlington despite getting controlled in every major statistical category, they got destroyed by the San Antonio Brahmas passing game, and they were inches away from being the team to dethrone the Birmingham Stallions. What do we make of this?
This will be a home game for the Defenders, and that represents a significant advantage and a tremendous swing as compared to if the game was in St. Louis. After their loss to Michigan, the Battlehawks have looked conclusively to be the second-best team in the UFL, but there is just some quality about the D.C. Defenders that won't go away and make things easier on all of us trying to predict these outcomes.
This shouldn't be a high-scoring game. I think the Battlehawks either win by a larger margin with the Defenders unable to respond with offensive firepower, or I think the Defenders would be able to keep it close in a lower-scoring game. I think that 28-17 could happen for St. Louis, but on the road, it's more likely to be 23 or 24-18 to 21 for the Battlehawks. I don't think D.C. is a horrible ML play at +154, but I'll lay three with the Battlehawks and go under for Week 5.
Michigan Panthers at Memphis Showboats (Sunday, April 28th, at 3 PM ED ( T)
Michigan (+1.5, -102 ML), Over/Under 39.5
Neither of these teams currently holds much of a home-field advantage, and both are coming off of losses with an accompanying change at the quarterback position. E.J. Perry is out after a Week 4 injury, and it looks like it will be Danny Etling for the rest of the year--not too bad considering his efficient takeover performance against the Brahmas last week. Case Cookus is now out, and he will be replaced by 2023 Pittsburgh Maulers starting QB Troy Williams.
That is not a bad thing if you are most football coaches. Williams can lead a team to victory off of the strength of his legs while only throwing for 87 yards. But, if you are a John DeFilippo-coached team, it is not good news, and there should be very genuine concern as to whether the Memphis offensive options will be used to the best of their potential with Williams under center.
If DeFilippo decides to run the ball more with Williams, Darius Victor, and Titus Swen, the Showboats can win this game. However, I do not think they will make the appropriate coaching adjustments given their situation. Mike Nolan was using E.J. Perry wrong the entire season, and Etling is a little more tailored for the offense that the Panthers are trying to produce in addition to their Wes Hills-led rushing game. This is still a game that Michigan should win, but I do not think it will be high-scoring enough to hit 40. There should be a lot of running in this game. That would usually drive a score down, but in this case, it would be better for both teams. Give me the Panthers to win the game with a score between 19-14 to 20-18. On the ML, I love Michigan, and I think the game is won by a razor-thin margin either way.
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