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The minor league baseball season is underway and many well-known prospects are already making their case for an MLB debut later this summer.
However, the question is do these performances truly matter for this season? How easy will it be for these prospects to reach the big leagues and are they worth stashing on your redraft roster?
Knowing which prospects to watch can put you ahead of your leaguemates and in the driver’s seat during the second half of the season. Adding the right prospect can fill the missing piece on your roster and power you to a fantasy baseball championship. This fantasy baseball prospects bi-weekly series will examine a few key players in the minor leagues and assess whether they have a path to fantasy stardom in 2024.
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Cade Povich, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore No. 9 , Overall N/A
Yet another Baltimore prospect is making an appearance in this column. However, this time, we are looking at its young southpaw, who is blooming into a star at Triple-A this season. Across 26 ⅓ innings, the 24-year-old is riding a dominant 1.03 ERA and 0.76 WHIP with 40 punchouts.
Povich was a very different pitcher last season as he posted a 5.36 ERA and 1.35 WHIP across 45 ⅓ innings at Triple-A. So what happened? Did everything just finally click for the former Nebraska Cornhusker? Looking at his underlying metrics, we can see what has changed over the past year.
First, Povich has increased his strikeout rate from 26.9% to 41.7%. Secondly, his ground-ball rate has jumped from 41.8% to 45.7%. In addition, Povich has been able to lower his BABIP from .214 to .200.
When looking at his splits, Povich struggled against right-handed batters in Triple-A last season, as he allowed a 1.26 WHIP and 20 free passes. This season, however, against right-handers, he is currently posting a 0.83 WHIP while giving up only eight walks.
Cade Povich began his day with five straight strikeouts, then added a couple more.
The @Orioles' No. 9 prospect now leads the Minor Leagues with 40 K's on the season for the @NorfolkTides. pic.twitter.com/TSiBn4S0Cz
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 25, 2024
Now, for the question that is on everyone’s mind. Does this truly matter for 2024?
Unfortunately for Povich, he was not promoted to the major leagues when Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells were all on the injured list. Bradish has just rejoined the team, and Means is currently in the final steps of his rehab stint. With both of these starting pitchers returning, it is hard to picture a path right now that could make Povich fantasy-relevant in 2024.
However, since it was very early in the season, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and that Baltimore was not even considering moving him up to the major leagues. With the way Povich is currently pitching, he should be given a chance in the majors this season and could very well force the Orioles' hand with the current success he is having.
Povich is worth monitoring but will most likely make his major league debut sometime later in the season as Baltimore management has shown no sign of suggesting a call-up is imminent.
If the Orioles need some rotation help down the stretch, do not be surprised if Povich’s name is tossed around, but with Bradish and Means on their way back, Povich may have to wait a bit longer.
Verdict: Currently pointing toward a later promotion, monitor in deeper leagues
Christian Scott, RHP, New York Mets
New York No. 5, Overall N/A
Scott made an appearance in an earlier edition in this column, but he has begun to catch the eye of many redraft managers. For that reason, I feel that there might be a need to analyze his performance further.
Through 25 ⅓ innings, the former Florida Gator has a 3.20 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with 36 strikeouts. So, you are probably asking yourself: is he is really worth stashing with a 3.20 ERA?
Well, Scott has allowed nine earned runs and seven home runs. All of the damage done to him has come off the long ball, which is his kryptonite. Compared to last season, Scott had a 0.73 HR/9, while this year he sports a 2.61 HR/9.
Besides this one knock (which is why the Mets are hesitant to promote him), Scott has been outstanding. He is riding an incredible 44.2% K rate and .152 BABIP.
Christian Scott is generating a fair amount of buzz among Mets fans.
The @Mets No. 6 prospect is an efficient strike-thrower and is turning heads 👀
(📽️ @SyracuseMets)pic.twitter.com/q5xABERuW4
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) April 23, 2024
If Scott can keep the ball in the yard, he should be promoted relatively quickly, as the current New York rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Adrian Houser has an 8.37 ERA and is holding on to the final rotation spot by a thread.
The Mets want to be careful with Scott, especially if he is having trouble preventing home runs. Moving him up to the majors could hinder his development if he is serving up the long ball.
Pay close attention to Scott's next handful of starts with Triple-A Syracuse. If he can go a few games without allowing a home run (or at least decrease the rate he is currently allowing them), he could be on the 7 Train to Citi Field before we know it.
Verdict: Stash in deep redraft leagues, wait in shallow leagues for now
Orelvis Martinez, INF, Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto No. 2, Overall No. 81
Wrapping up the list is Toronto infielder Orelvis Martinez, who had quite the power stretch over the past two weeks.
From April 14 to April 21, the 22-year-old launched six balls out of the yard. Across the entire season, he is riding a .300/.364/.622 with seven total home runs and 22 RBI. In addition, he had an equally impressive 15-game hitting streak earlier in April.
6 home runs in 7 games for Orelvis Martinez🔥 pic.twitter.com/5vNKgq7fUo
— The Call Up | An MLB Prospect Podcast (@The_CallUpPod) April 21, 2024
Martinez has even lowered his K rate from 26.8% to 21.9%, but lowered his walk rate from 10.6% to 7.3% compared to last season.
His bat is ready for the major leagues, but his defense is not. Martinez has committed seven errors in just 19 games at Triple-A this season. Last year, he had similar struggles, as he committed four in 26 games at Triple-A.
While his defense may not be the sole reason for him not being promoted, the Blue Jays are opting to be patient with their budding star.
However, the Blue Jays have had a pretty mediocre start to the season, and they are not where they want to be in the standings. Toronto needs a spark, and Martinez’s bat can provide that.
The designated hitter spot is primarily occupied by veteran Justin Turner, who has a strong .309 AVG with 12 RBI. The Blue Jays have been able to have a “revolving door” at second and third base, which has kept them afloat for the time being. However, Martinez’s bat is much more potent than Isiah Kiner-Falefa's and Davis Schneider's, and if Toronto is serious about competing, it can swallow his weaker defense for his outstanding offense.
Martinez will be promoted this season; there is no doubt about that. His bat is more than capable of handling major league pitchers. If you have a roster spot stash open, stash Martinez.
Verdict: Stash in standard roto leagues, wait in shallow formats until official promotion
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