RADIO
Do you enjoy paying more for a product that is similar to another considerably cheaper product? Maybe you are the person who buys the name brand just because you have the extra money or some type of status that comes with it. That's not me. I shop at Aldi, where I bag my own groceries and bring my own bags. If there's a generic equivalent, I'm most likely buying it. My wife clips coupons. The hunt for value and savings never ends.
The reality is that this frugal mindset carries over quite nicely to fantasy baseball drafts, where in a normal (non-keepers, non-dynasty) format - all the managers have an equal amount of capital that they can use to acquire the players they need to win the league. So while drafting some well-known and trusted commodities might make you feel warm and fuzzy and safe (no one ever complains about taking Freddy Freeman in the first round), going with safe picks and veteran players without taking some risks likely isn't going to be a winning formula.
So in this article, I'm going to recommend a handful of hitters who could, if things go well, meet or exceed the production of players at the same position that are being drafted several rounds earlier. And of course, I will be using the award-winning ATC projections to find these values! Let's get thrifty, shall we?
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Why Draft Cody Bellinger When You Can Draft Nolan Jones?
Bellinger ADP: 55, ATC Projection: 82 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 17 STL, .261 AVG
Jones ADP: 71, ATC Projection: 81 R, 24 HR, 78 RBI, 19 STL, .269 AVG
It was great to see Bellinger get back on track last season in Chicago. He posted his best numbers since 2019 when, at age 23 it looked like he was ready to become one of the best hitters in the league. ATC projections have him regressing a bit this year, which seems right to me considering he made the best contact of his career and cut his K% all the way down to just 15.6% last year. His career average is 22% and he also had a career-high BABIP of .319 which helped contribute to the best batting average of his career as he finished at .307.
At age 28, Bellinger is still in his prime. But what if he levels off here or fails to hit his projection? Is he really worth a fifth-round pick if he doesn't match last year's production?
And what if you could get the same production from Nolan Jones a round or two later?
Nolan Jones slugged .600 (90 total bases in 150 ABs) on low non-fastballs in the 2023 season, 2nd best in MLB pic.twitter.com/vhqlj4kazC
— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) March 6, 2024
Jones slugged 20 home runs last year and stole 20 bases and he did it in 424 plate appearances - 132 fewer than Bellinger had. Jones still has some issues making contact as he whiffed 29.7% of the time, but that was an improvement from the 33% K% he posted as a rookie in 2022. If he can trim that strikeout rate down into the mid-20s then watch out!
Both hitters benefit from playing in hitter-friendly home ballparks, but Coors Field is a huge boost not only to home runs but doubles and triples with its spacious outfield - especially for a guy like Jones with speed.
We know what Belli can do, but a full season of Nolan Jones is awfully exciting and, if anything, his projections seem pretty modest. I know I am not the only person high on him this year, so be ready to grab him ahead of his ADP in a competitive draft.
Why Draft Xander Bogaerts When You Can Draft Ezequiel Tovar?
Bogaerts ADP: 92, ATC Projection: 81 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 12 STL, .278 AVG
Tovar ADP: 205, ATC Projection: 78 R, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 13 STL, .264 AVG
Okay, so Jones is only going 10-15 picks later than Bellinger - how about we go with another Colorado Rockies' youngster for some super savings this time?
Ezequiel Tovar's ADP is rising this Spring, but you can still get him well after Bogaerts and all you're missing out on (according to ATC) is three runs, one RBI, and a few points of batting average.
Bogaerts fits my early description of a "warm fuzzy blanket" perfectly because he's been a productive player every year of his career who can contribute across the board in multiple stat categories. And while his first season in San Diego brought his highest stolen base total (19), it also came with his lowest average (.285) and RBI total (59) since 2018. He's shifting over to second base this season and is projected to hit second in the order behind Tatis Jr. Maybe he will run as much as he did last year, but he hasn't swiped double-digit bags since 2017.
Bogaerts is boring! If you have already drafted him, that's fine - I am not here to judge. But middle infielders are plentiful later in drafts and drafting someone like Bogaerts before pick 100 just isn't for me.
Ezequiel Tovar laces a double on the first pitch he saw on Friday to score a run.
Tovar, who played most of 2023 as a 21-year-old, had 37 doubles last season.
That tied for most by a rookie in the NL and tied Todd Helton for the Rockies rookie record. pic.twitter.com/q9mmhI51II
— Patrick Lyons (@PatrickDLyons) March 9, 2024
Let's talk about Tovar! He's best known for his defense, but the 22-year-old shortstop hit 15 home runs and drove in 73 RBI in his first full season in the bigs. He also stole 11 bags and hit .253. So his ATC projection is only anticipating some minor gains across the board and still puts him up there with nearly similar production to Bogaerts. I think it's much more likely that he improves on his rookie numbers than fails to reach them and there's much less risk associated with him around pick 200.
Why Draft Starling Marte When You Can Draft Jose Siri?
Marte ADP: 210, ATC Projection: 59 R, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 25 STL, .261 AVG
Siri ADP: 264, ATC Projection: 61 R, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 19 STL, .224 AVG
Let's finish things off with some potential late-round value. Jose Siri is a guy who is a legit 30-30 threat this season who is being drafted outside of the top 250. Obviously, the batting average is a big drag on his value, but it's an area you can address earlier in drafts by focusing on better contact hitters.
As a Pirates fan, it's sad to see Marte's career starting to wind down, but at age 35 he's looking like a shell of his former self. Not just because he has only one hit in twelve ST at-bats, but because he limped his way through only 86 games for the Mets last season, setting career-lows across the board in HR, R, and RBI. The one bright spot was 24 steals from Marte which was a nice increase from the 18 bags he swiped in 2022.
I'm not here to talk trash on Marte, but why invest in a bounceback from a guy at that stage of his career? Why not take a shot at a player in Siri who has a path to playing time in Tampa Bay and the type of power/speed upside we are always looking for in fantasy? Like Duran's projection, I think Siri's stolen base projection seems low given his elite speed (98 Sprint Speed). He's one of the fastest players in the game and it's been rumored that he's looking to run more.
If Jose Siri says he wants to steal 30 bases, Jose Siri will steal 30 bases.
— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) March 8, 2024
Good luck with your upcoming drafts, and thanks for reading! I'm off to Sam's Club - let the bargain hunting begin!
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