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Several weeks ago, we published the first part of my Dynasty Primer series. That article delves into how dynasty managers can and should value dynasty draft picks, especially rookie-only picks. The aim is to help fans understand how to value dynasty draft picks, independent of player valuations or analyst opinions on the players you might get with those picks.
Today, we will dive into the second part of our Dynasty Primer series. Namely, we will address how to attack a rebuild of your dynasty team(s). Knowing when and how to rebuild a losing or mediocre dynasty squad is incredibly important. Many don't know when to pull the plug, while others commit to a rebuild halfway through their startup draft. Identifying when you need to do this and how is difficult, but key.
This article will begin with general advice on roster evaluation, offering general advice on how to identify when a team needs to rebuild and what kinds of moves to make once you do. The second part of this article will specifically address how to rebuild in 2024. Namely, we will address what veterans to sell, what rookies are overrated, and which rookies/picks you should be targeting in trades.
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Big Picture Rules for a Rebuild
Big-picture dynasty advice is general advice that has nothing to do with a specific draft class or player. It is meant to offer general rules for everyone to follow when evaluating and considering whether to commit to a rebuild. An example of this advice would be, “Never draft a running back in the first round of Superflex startups.”
If you are looking for specific advice on the 2024 draft class and specific players to target/trade, skip ahead to the next section. If you are interested in some general rules that might help you in future seasons, this section could be for you.
Rule #1: Watch Film & Trade for Picks Early
Far too many analysts and fans of dynasty leagues do not commit to watching college film. Instead, they rely on a few highlights and what others tell them to think. It’s hard to understand why so many do it this way. Is this really why you got into dynasty leagues? To commit to players for a decade without having a personal investment or any opinion on their potential?
Why so many full-time, well-paid, fantasy analysts are comfortable saying “I haven’t dug into this class yet” is baffling. You’re paid to talk about fantasy football and yet you admit to relying on others or waiting until April to do your research. This happens a lot, though, and if paid analysts do it…don’t you think people in your leagues do it as well?
If you want an edge on your league, watch some college football in the fall. Then, jump into the full game film in December. If you don’t know who to watch, make a list of the top position players on most NFL Draft analyst boards. Then watch at least four full games of each player. That allows you to know a few key players yourself, become invested, and start making moves for them early.
If you get in on a rookie class early enough, few in your league will know the upcoming draft like you do. You’ll know if you should bail on a bad class or hoard picks in a good one while others are still thinking about the Super Bowl. In late March, the rest of your league will have listened to podcasts and caught on, but in February you will have an edge worth exploiting.
Rule #2: Honestly Evaluate Your Roster
The worst thing that an NFL team can do is commit itself to a perpetual state of mediocrity, yet you see it time and again. NFL teams go 8-9 or 9-8 and convince themselves, “We are close!” They over-invest in free agents, make trades they shouldn’t, and commit to a championship push without a star quarterback or a real plan to win…except for, maybe, luck?
A fine example of this formula is the New Orleans Saints, post-Drew Brees. The Saints have committed massive dollars to Derek Carr, who hasn't led a true contender since 2016. They've routinely traded future assets for win-now prospects who aren't very good (Marcus Davenport and Trevor Penning), and yet they won’t win their weak division. You don’t want your dynasty team to be like the Saints.
Below you will find a fine example of a Saints-like dynasty roster that should commit to a rebuild. It has some fine assets in a Superflex TE-Premium dynasty league, but it has enough holes and older veterans that it needs to hit reset…
| Pos. | Player |
| QB | Justin Fields |
| RB | Saquon Barkley |
| RB | Joe Mixon |
| WR | Garrett Wilson |
| WR | Tyler Lockett |
| WR | Gabe Davis |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid |
| Flex | Kyle Pitts |
| Flex | Brian Robinson Jr. |
| Superflex | Matthew Stafford |
| Top Backup RB | Chase Brown |
| Top Backup WR | Jakobi Meyers |
| Draft Picks | 1.04, 1.12, 2.08, 3.07, 4.07 |
Admittedly, this team could be sneaky good if all went well. Justin Fields could earn the starting job for Pittsburgh, while Barkley and Mixon could turn in RB1 seasons and Garrett Wilson could be fantasy’s WR1. Even better, those draft picks could turn into Drake Maye throwing to Justin Jefferson and BrIan Thomas Jr. catching passes from Trevor Lawrence. In that dream scenario, this team could contend.
A more likely result is this team only has one quarterback starting in the NFL next year, with Fields a backup and that 1.04 pick turning into a receiver or a QB who may sit. Its running backs are old and losing dynasty value by the day, while pick 1.12 should miss whatever receivers the Bills and Chiefs draft. There is little hope this squad does anything but languish at .500, so it should trade its veterans ASAP.
Rule #3: Know What Assets to Keep or Sell
In Rule #2, above, we looked at a hypothetical dynasty roster and decided it needed to be rebuilt. But what does that mean?
Younger stars are hard to give up in dynasty, even if you’re rebuilding. Players like Garrett Wilson are building blocks whose fantasy viability should maintain long past when your rebuilding squad is relevant again. In a rebuild, you are looking to dump players who will not be viable once your team is competitive. You want to keep guys like Wilson or CeeDee Lamb unless the offer is immense.
On this hypothetical roster, Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon should be the first to go. It is commonly known that the RB position ages quickly in pro football. Running backs tend to start losing value around age 27, which means they only hold value to teams actively in a winning window. Mixon and Barkley are both near the age of no return but should still get a decent return from a contender.
Beyond the running backs, this hypothetical team must consider trading one of its tight ends. This league uses TE-Premium scoring, meaning tight ends receive an extra point per reception. Thus, players like Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kincaid hold increased value. You have to be open to trading one, but only if you get good value. Otherwise, you hold both and start one in your flex.
Rule #4: Own Your Opinions and Your Team
During my initial evaluation of the 2020 Draft, I didn’t see Jerry Jeudy the same as everyone else. The Alabama prospect was a solid player who I thought should go in the first 30-40 picks. However, I didn’t see a special prospect or an elite WR1 when I watched his film.
That’s why my initial top-ten ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft’s receiver class were as follows….
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tee Higgins
- Justin Jefferson
- Henry Ruggs
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Jerry Jeudy
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Laviska Shenault
- K.J. Hamler
- Denzel Mims
I never found an analyst or fan who was as low on Jeudy as I was during the 2020 draft process, which is why I began second-guessing myself. Everyone thought he was elite, so I talked myself into his route prowess and made myself see what others saw. I watched every Alabama game again, convincing myself that there was more there that I just wasn’t seeing. I let others influence my view.
I mention this because it is a fine example of how the media and outside pressure can make you betray your gut and make the wrong call. Jeudy has not yet met the expectations that so many had for him. In fact, he hasn’t come close. Maybe that changes in Cleveland but, so far, he’s played like the sixth-best receiver in that 2020 class…which is where I originally ranked him.
Now, I don’t mention my evaluation of Jeudy to brag. I had plenty of misses in that class and others. The point is simply that talking heads don’t always know more than you do. Don’t draft players just because someone told you to. Worse, don’t pass on players you like just because you have “too many shares already.” Own your evaluations and make picks you believe in. Take ten shares of the same player if you love him.
Veterans You Should Trade Away in 2024
Below is a list of players who hold considerable value to contenders but are worth far less on a rebuilding roster. The chart will detail each player’s ADP on Sleeper in two formats (Superflex and non-Superflex). It also includes their trade value in terms of rookie draft picks, via my ASPV model….
| Player | Pos. | Superflex ADP | Non-Superflex ADP | ASPV Value |
| Breece Hall | RB | 16th | 10th | 1.01+ |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | 22nd | 12th | 1.02 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 48th | 22nd | 1.06 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | 36th | 23rd | 1.04 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 70th | 38th | 1.09+ |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | 86th | 148th | 2.01 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | 58th | 53rd | 1.06 |
*Note: the + designation denotes a player is worth more than the pick denoted, per ASPV.
Let us now address why each of these players is a sell candidate for rebuilding teams.
Breece Hall
Hall is currently dynasty’s second overall running back, per Sleeper ADP and FantasyPros’ consensus rankings. This makes sense since he will be 23 years old this entire season, was the second-highest scoring RB in PPR leagues in 2023 despite acclimating from injury, and was PFF's top-graded receiving back. All of those factors, along with projected volume, keep Hall’s trade value extremely high.
That high value is exactly why a rebuilding team should trade him away. Running backs have a short shelf life and Hall’s should begin to expire in four years or fewer. Most rebuilds take at least two years, but a true rebuild usually takes closer to three or four years to complete. Thus, most rebuilding teams will waste much of Hall’s prime and utilize just a sliver of it before he begins to decline.
As for what you should expect in return, consider that Hall’s ADP is higher than any rookie in non-Superflex startups and is behind just Caleb Williams in new Superflex drafts. ASPV suggests you could get pick 1.01 in a trade for Hall, but rarely will a team that needs Hall have that selection. A more realistic expectation may be to ask for Drake London and 1.05 for Hall, with a sweetener thrown in.
Tyreek Hill
Hill is the definition of a win-now dynasty asset. He’s 30 years old this year and has publicly said he wants to retire before he falls apart. That said, he’s being taken ahead of every rookie except Caleb Williams in dynasty Superflex startups. Dynasty managers know that Hill can lead their team to a championship this year and possibly next, so true contenders may pay a premium for that potential.
Given his ADP and ASPV value, you could expect to get multiple first-round picks from a contender who truly needs Hill. Perhaps 1.05 and 1.10 would get the deal done in Superflex. In non-Superflex, you must demand 1.03 or a package that includes someone like George Pickens and pick 1.05, at worst.
Saquon Barkley
Saquon is at the age where many backs begin to decline, plus he has a lengthy injury history. That said, Barkley was the RB13 in PPR scoring last year despite playing on an awful team and struggling with injuries. Some contenders with a major need at running back should be willing to pay a late first for Barkley, knowing this rookie running back class is thin on immediate potential.
While ASPV estimates Barkley’s trade value around pick 1.06 in rookie drafts, you may have to take less if you want to execute a deal before the season. The bold dynasty manager may decide to wait and trade Barkley in-season if they cannot get at least pick 1.08 back in an off-season deal. Saquon’s value could skyrocket for a contender if the Eagles use him the right way early.
Kyren Williams
No player saw his fantasy stock rise as much as Williams last year. Despite limited athleticism and missing four games due to injury, the Notre Dame alum finished as RB7 in PPR scoring. Because the Rams have done little to replace him in free agency, the expectation is they will likely use Kyren as their lead running back in 2023 while devoting their draft to defense, depth, and possibly an heir at QB.
Given Williams’ production and seemingly secure role on a good Rams offense, he should fetch a good price in trade. That is especially true when you consider there isn’t a back in this rookie class who is expected to do what Williams did in 2023. Despite his age (24) and limited physical profile, you might expect a running back-starved contender to surrender a pick as high as 1.04 for the Rams’ star.
Deebo Samuel
Given the generationally deep rookie wide receiver class we have in this year’s NFL Draft, the trade value for Deebo Samuel and other veteran receivers will be suppressed. That doesn’t mean there’s no market for a playmaker with massive name recognition, though. After all, Deebo is coming off the second-best year of his career and he is an undeniably fun player to watch and root for.
ASPV places Deebo’s trade value at 1.09+, meaning you should get the 1.09 and a little more. Depending on where the rookie receivers are drafted in this class, that may be a realistic return in non-Superflex formats. In Superflex drafts, a more realistic return for Deebo is probably pick 1.11. Your best bet may be to package Deebo and a late first or early second to move up, instead.
Kirk Cousins
Cousins has a relatively strong ASPV that hovers around pick 1.07 in Superflex rookie drafts. There is enough optimism over what he can do in Atlanta over the next few years to make him a high-end QB2 for contenders, but his age and lack of elite upside mean a rebuilding team should unload him and take their lumps this year. Cousins is valuable on a contender, but he can only hurt a rebuilder's chances at a good pick.
While his ASPV is pick 1.07, what you can get for him depends on whether any contenders need a high-end QB2 and what assets they have. Typically, a contender with a top-five pick won't deal for Cousins, happy to fill their QB2 role with one of the three elite rookie QBs in this class. Sending Cousins for 1.10 and a second is a solid return.
Jordan Addison
Labeling Addison a dynasty sell is controversial. The USC product had several massive games as a rookie and is extremely popular in dynasty circles. That is exactly why a rebuilding team should trade him away, especially if you could package him with another pick to move into the top five of this draft class.
Addison is nowhere near as physically gifted as the top receivers in this class. Worse, if Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy are throwing to him, Addison’s stock could actually go down in 2024 before it goes back up. If you can package Addison with a late first to get into the top-five picks of a Superflex or the top three of a non-Superflex rookie draft, you should make that move.
Underrated Rookies/Picks to Target
With veteran dumps covered, let's jump into this rookie class, shall we?
Below, you will find a chart detailing rookies who are good value at their current rookie-draft cost. Players who are being drafted at least five spots lower than where I have them ranked will get a (+) next to their names. Players drafted more than a round later will get (++).
| Player | Pos. | School | Superflex ADP | Non-Superflex ADP |
| Rome Odunze | WR | Washington | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Drake Maye | QB | N. Carolina | 1.06 | 2.03 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | Texas | 1.11 | 1.09 |
| Ladd McConkey(+) | WR | Georgia | 2.03 | 2.03 |
| Jaylen Wright (+) | RB | Tennessee | 2.10 | 2.09 |
| MarShawn Lloyd(+) | RB | USC | 3.01 | 3.01 |
| Malachi Corley | WR | W. Kentucky | 3.08 | 2.12 |
| Javon Baker (++) | WR | UCF | 4.01 | 3.11 |
| Ben Sinnott | TE | Kansas St. | 5.01 | 5.01 |
| Kendall Milton | RB | Georgia | Undrafted | Undrafted |
Rome Odunze is on this list simply because he is often treated as an afterthought in this class. The debate is hot between Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr., while Odunze is considered a comfortable third in that pecking order. The talent gap between those three isn't so large, though. This is especially true if a team like the Bills or Jaguars trades up for him.
Because fantasy managers and analysts think the gap between Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. is bigger than it is, they also see a big gap in the value of their draft pick values. Namely, most managers in a non-Superflex see 1.01 as far more valuable than 1.03. For that reason, trading for 1.03 may be much cheaper and the statistical returns could be negligible.
Drake Maye
The value of Drake Maye will vary widely based on where he is drafted. If the Vikings or Commanders take him, then Maye is my dynasty QB2 in this rookie class. If he goes to the Patriots and J.J. McCarthy ends up in Minnesota, then Maye could be QB4 on many dynasty boards. For now, positioning yourself to draft Maye at 1.06 in Superflex is a fine gamble with good fallback options.
Mitchell has a lot of boom-or-bust to him. His inconsistent motor, iffy blocking, and tendency to basket catch too often are all noteworthy. However, he is also one of the smoothest route runners in the class, and his hands are actually great when he extends and goes after the ball. He also tested off the charts at the NFL Combine, showing ideal size, speed, and agility.
While Mitchell carries risk, his current cost of 1.09 is a bargain that won’t last after the Draft is over. The worst quarterback this former Longhorn will likely play with is Brock Purdy, which isn’t bad. The best would be Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. There are a few scenarios where this guy doesn’t play with a quality passer, but there are multiple scenarios where he has a big role in a good offense.
The book on McConkey is that he's simply a very good slot receiver. Most analysts and fantasy advisors don't seem to think he can win outside or deep against NFL corners… even though he did both against one of the top corners in this class (Terrion Arnold). That is why McConkey is going in the second round of most rookie drafts when he deserves late first-round consideration.
The top back on my board, Wright’s current ADP in rookie drafts hovers around pick 2.09. That is unlikely to change after the Draft, given few analysts expect he will be one of the first backs off the board. That means you should be able to comfortably secure Wright’s services if you just trade for an early second-round pick. Adding a sturdy 21-year-old back with big-play ability at pick 2.04 is a good move.
This former Trojan is the fourth running back on my board, but he is a better pure runner than my third-ranked back (Trey Benson). Lloyd can currently be had with pick 3.01, which feels like his floor. If you think Lloyd has the upside of a high-end RB2, which I do, you may consider securing a late second-round pick to ensure you get him.
Baby Deebo is an intriguing prospect. He could be an absolute steal at his current ADP in the right scheme. In the wrong scheme, he could be a complete bust. Given his yards-after-catch ability, Corley is a solid value in the late second round of all formats.
Baker is my absolute favorite value pick, according to current ADP, by a large margin. The UCF product has elite body control, breaks plenty of big plays, and shows strong contested catch ability. He is my favorite rookie sleeper in this class.
It is worth noting that my favorite rookie sleeper in the 2021 class was Elijah Mitchell, while Tank Dell and Chase Brown were my top sleepers last year.
Sinnott is considered a tweener by some, but he has risen to the second tight end on my big board. Dynasty managers are behind on him since he's going in the fifth round of dynasty drafts right now. The Kansas State product has good speed, change of direction, and reliable hands. His stock is sure to rise when an NFL team selects him much higher than many anticipate. He is worth a third-round pick in rookie drafts.
Milton may never find an NFL home, given his injury history and lack of receiving experience. However, he has terrific contact balance and plays with more straight-line speed than his 40-time suggests. Milton's is a name most won't know. That said, players like James Robinson, Gus Edwards, or D'Ernest Johnson weren’t well known before they became fantasy-relevant.
Overrated Rookies to Avoid at Their Cost
Below you will find a list of rookies who a being drafted higher than they should be in dynasty drafts. Players who are going at least six picks too early will have a (!) next to their name.
| Player | Pos | School | Superflex ADP | Non-Superflex ADP |
| Blake Corum (!) | RB | Michigan | 2.04 | 1.06 |
| Trey Benson | RB | Florida State | 2.05 | 1.07 |
| Troy Franklin | RB | Oregon | 1.11 | 1.10 |
| Braelon Allen (!) | RB | Wisconsin | 2.08 | 2.01 |
| Roman Wilson | WR | Michigan | 2.07 | 2.05 |
| Devontez Walker | WR | N. Carolina | 3.03 | 2.11 |
Franklin is currently ranked as rookie WR5 on many analyst boards, while Sleeper ADP has him as WR6. Unfortunately, the Oregon product will need to be drafted into the ideal situation for him to rise above WR8 in my rookie rankings. He is too thin, can be outmuscled, and drops far too many throws. PFF ranked Franklin 699th amongst all college receivers in drop rating, which shows up on film.
None of this is to say Franklin cannot be a star. He has the height, speed, agility, and playmaking ability to thrive. However, his red flags are the same ones that had me fading Quentin Johnston in dynasty drafts last year. Ladd McConkey has a higher floor, and Xavier Legette has a higher ceiling, yet both are being drafted after Franklin.
Last year, 59 running backs in college football earned at least 135 rush attempts and had a higher yards-per-carry average than Blake Corum. This was despite PFF giving Michigan its 10th-highest run-blocking grade in 2023. Corum finished 13th and 8th in rush attempts the past two years, yet he never finished higher than 11th in yards. He dominated in touchdown efficiency, but not anywhere else.
This data does not mean Corum is a bad back. He reads lanes well, makes himself small in gaps, shows good contact balance, and is very effective at the goal line. What this data means is Corum was not always efficient in Jim Harbaugh’s offense. Given that many are elevating this rookie because they expect him to play for Harbaugh’s Chargers, it’s fair to wonder if that’s really such a good fit.
Also worth noting is Corum’s lack of size and his age. The Wolverine will be 24 this season, which means he has about 3-4 years before he reaches the typical running back wall.
Trey Benson
Benson has an every-down profile. He has soft hands as a receiver, good long speed, runs through contact, and shows good bend in tight spaces. He simply doesn’t show special traits that would merit taking him ahead of players like Adonai Mitchell, Brian Thomas Jr., or Brock Bowers.
Benson is good at many things, but his film doesn’t show one elite trait. You chase elite traits in the first round. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is what happens when you spend an early pick on a good but not great talent just because he was drafted into an elite situation. I have a higher grade on Benson than I did Edwards-Helaire, but that’s not a reason to spend pick 1.07 on him.
Kendre Miller got a lot of dynasty steam last summer, in part because he was just 20 years old. The idea was that if he hit early with Alvin Kamara suspended, Miller could be a dynasty starter for seven years. However, the TCU alum’s film wasn’t particularly special in college or the pros. That translated to a disappointing rookie year where he was often fourth on the depth chart.
Allen isn’t the same player Miller is, but he’s getting the same “age boost.” Allen is just 20 years old and has a lot of college football under his belt. He’s a big and punishing runner who excelled as a freshman…then he never got much better. His best hope is to get volume in a gap-heavy scheme, which isn’t common in today’s NFL. He should not be the third rookie back off dynasty boards.
Wilson is another player, like Troy Franklin, whose dynasty value is all over the place. In Sleeper drafts, he is going in the mid-second round, while many analysts have him as a high second-rounder. Heck, one of our own analysts drafted Wilson in the first round of our staff rookie mock a month ago.
The Michigan product has many good traits, chief amongst them being his speed and ability to get open on extended plays. However, Wilson can be muscled off of routes, and he doesn't have elite length or consistently get separation on complex routes. According to the current ADP, Jaylen Wright, Xavier Legette, and Ricky Pearsall are all better assets who are being taken after Wilson.
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