DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Zurich Classic of New Orleans With Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Nick Taylor, Adam Hadwin and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Zurich Classic of New Orleans

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Field

Field Size: 80 Teams
Cut: Top 33 Teams and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: Five

 

Last Five Winners of The Zurich Classic of New Orleans

2023	Nick Hardy/Davis Riley	-30
2022	Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay	-29
2021	Cameron Smith/Marc Leishman	-20
2019	Jon Rahm/Shane Lowry	-26
2019	Billy Horschel/Scott Piercy	-22

 

Expected Cut-Line 

2023	-9
2022	-7
2021	-5
2020	-7
2019	-5

 

TPC Louisiana

7,425 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

It is a tricky week for us at the Zurich Classic, as 80 teams will be competing for the title at TPC Louisiana. The top 33 and ties will get to tee it up all four days, with play getting split between a best ball format on Thursday and Saturday and an alternate shot structure on Friday and Sunday.

While data isn't as easy to come by as a regular stop because of the lack of trackable data over the last handful of years at this event, I did pre-plug some totals on my DFS Rankings Wizard model to highlight how each tandem would best succeed from an optimal sense. It doesn't mean they necessarily make the right call when the situation arises, but there is a potential advantage to be found when the groups split their alternate shot breakdown correctly.

If you are trying to handicap this from a statistical perspective, over 29 percent of second shots should come from over 200 yards. However, this essentially is a tournament where you get freedom and extra room for aggressiveness during best ball and a lot more strategy from all involved when diving into alternate shot.

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	TPC Louisiana	PGA Average
Driving Distance	276	283
Driving Accuracy	63%	61%
GIR Percentage	66%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	60%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.33	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: Pete Dye (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Over 7,400 Yards (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: TPC (10%)

 

Weighted Team Scoring (20%)

 

Weighted Team Birdie or Better (20%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

Total Number of Top-10's Team

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Players	Odds	Risk	Win
McIlroy/Lowry	8.5	0.47	4
Taylor/Hadwin	40	0.1	4

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

Both teammates
Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry
Sahith Theegala/Will Zalatoris

Individuals
Collin Morikawa
Adam Hadwin
Nicolai Hojgaard
Aaron Rai
Kevin Yu
Aldrich Potgieter

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

Pricing will give us the top-four teams on the board in the order in which my model projected them this week. 

I do think we have to be somewhat cognizant of ownership (good luck finding a pure takeaway from that answer), but I do have concerns that Schauffele/Cantlay will come in massively over-owned compared to the rest of the pack. 

For me, this is likely a spot where I want to aggressively back McIlroy/Lowry and Theegala/Zalatoris in builds this week because of their ideal partnership pairings from a data perspective. 

There wasn't a team in my model that topped McIlroy/Lowry when comparing their alternate shot format grade since McIlroy on the even holes and Lowry on the odds holes has the chance to provide the best of both worlds. We also get a high-end projection for best ball formats because of the forceful nature of McIlroy's aggression. 

That has the propensity to hurt him in most events, but a triple bogey will easily be excluded from the mix in the best ball stature of the contest if/when Lowry saves the day. 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I talked a little about my first outright bet in McIlroy/Lowry and will venture into my other play in that sector when diving into Nick Taylor/Adam Hadwin. 

Taylor and Hadwin nearly took down the title here last season after shooting 28-under par and closing the weekend with a 64 and 63, respectively. 

It is a good spot for the duo here again in 2024 since their top six projected "team grade" in my model got massively bolstered by their relatively high-end scoring marks for each format this week. 

Taylor's expected proximity for the course has a chance to play well in alternate shot, and both possess a nice ceiling for birdie-making potential. 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I had some intrigue on both Chan Kim/Doug Ghim and Davis Thompson/Andrew Novak, but I am going to go with the Thompson/Novak duo here since they possessed slightly more upside if they are able to put the pieces together.

My model ranked both Thompson and Novak in the top 25 for individual expected strokes gained total at this course, and we also got a top-six return for projected scoring at TPC Louisiana to increase that output further when combining their data. 

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Chris Gotterup and Austin Eckroat graded well as a team because of their past Pete Dye and TPC success as individual players. When you add in the nice mixture of distance versus accuracy for the two thriving in one of those areas, you get a profile that can be very similar to that Riley/Hardy combination that won last season. 

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

The limited data I have for Russ Cochran did present a questionable answer since Cole carried that team a lot with my metrics. 

Instead of landing under the expected projection in my sheet that could have some flaws, I am going to go with a ball-striking duo of Smotherman and Meissner to be a surprise top-20 squad in Louisiana. There are some +275 prices out there for them to land in the top 20 that might have a little value to consider. 

 

Favorite Play Each Section:

$10,000+ - Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry
$9,000+ - Nick Taylor/Adam Hadwin
$8,000+ - Davis Thompson/Andrew Novak
$7,000+ - Chris Gotterup/Austin Eckroat
$6,000+ - Austin Smotherman/Mac Meissner

 

 

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