DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The CJ Cup Byron Nelson With Jordan Spieth, Stephan Jaeger, Adam Schenk, Peter Kuest and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants:

 

Last Five Winners of The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

2023	Jason Day	-23
2022	K.H. Lee	-26
2021	K.H. Lee	-25

 

Expected Cut-Line 

2023	-3
2022	-4
2021	-5
2020
2019

 

TPC Craig Ranch

7,414 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

TPC Craig Ranch's brief yet unique history on the PGA Tour poses a fascinating challenge for statistical extrapolation. 

At its most basic core, a three-year sample size for any course can lead to more questions than answers since a lack of quantifiable metrics will only convolute the process. However, extra divergences from the norm come into play here since TPC Craig Ranch has been a venue known to be susceptible to weather-altered variations. That is not to say it has massively altered a player's performance when diving into an average winning score of 24-under par. Still, the potential for birdie-making returns and windows of weather-induced trouble puts us in a bind since the ability to strive for proper modeling diminishes when you get luck-filled retrievals and enhanced variance. 

That unpredictable nature forced me to look more into course-specific blueprints, such as Bentgrass courses, TPC properties, easy scoring conditions, venues over 7,400 yards, and wind play, although the leading quality came down to distance at all levels. Not only does the field average 12 yards more off the tee with a driver in hand because of the wide-open setup of the track, but it also delivers a staggering 35.6% distribution of approach shots from outside 200 yards -- a stat that landed 12.7% above PGA Tour average.

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	TPC Craig Ranch	PGA Average
Driving Distance	295	283
Driving Accuracy	60%	61%
GIR Percentage	69%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	66%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.4	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (35%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: Texas (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: TPC (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring + Easy Fairways (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Long Iron + Bentgrass Putting + OTT (15%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Odds	Risk	Win
Peter Kuest	100	0.12	12
Keith Mitchell	40	0.18	7.2
Adam Schenk	50	0.14	7
Stephan Jaeger	33	0.21	6.93
Tom Hoge	35	0.2	7

Golfers to Land in the Top 75 of the Field for All Categories

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

DraftKings priced Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and Will Zalatoris correctly this week, at least when comparing them to one another. 

My model didn't necessarily love Zalatoris' outlook because his recent putting data dropped him to 145th in this field when hitting his flat stick on average-to-fast Bentgrass greens. That might be something he can get around because of his immaculate ball-striking pedigree. However, additional red flags entered his profile when diving into his 70th-place grade for par-four scoring and inconsistent Texas performances. For those reasons, I will be a complete fade of Zalatoris this week.

The answer is not quite as simple when comparing Jason Day and Jordan Spieth, although my model found the American worth a gamble at the proper ownership percentage. Spieth ranked first in Strokes Gained: Texas, Easy Scoring + Easy Fairways and landed in the top five for expected Strokes Gained: Total at TPC Craig Ranch. Those are all intriguing returns for a golfer who has been shaky with his form but gets an ideal setup this week. 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

There is a lot to like in this $9,000 range when comparing price tags versus my projections. 

We can dive deeper into this entire range throughout the week, but I continue to believe markets are too low on Stephan Jaeger after winning his first title in Texas a handful of weeks ago.

Jaeger is the only man to top Scheffler in a tournament since March, and the data highlights an elite ball-striker who is being ignored because most bettors or DFS players don't believe he can continue his hot run this spring. 

While is going to need a little better safety to reach that ceiling, I will trust the data points that highlight him as the best pure win equity player in this field after ranking first for Weighted Scoring. 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Adam Schenk couldn't quite reach the upper tier of my model because of his lack of Texas pedigree inside of my sheet, although the combination he possessed of Weighted Long Iron Production, Expected Driving, and Bentgrass Putting helped to land him third in my model behind only Jason Day and Peter Kuest when equally combining all three factors into one grade. 

There is more playability than just Schenk in this section, even if my model liked going to him the best.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Consider Peter Kuest to be 'The Model Killer.' Whether that is a good or bad thing remains to be seen, but Kuest did a number on my model when diving into some of his returns. 

To be honest, this reminds me a little of when Corey Conners won the Valero Texas Open a handful of years ago at 250/1. The price won't be as good in the outright sector this time, but I will be taking a swing. 

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

Matt Wallace graded ninth in my model for Weighted: Strokes Gained Total and ninth for putting.

The form leaves a ton to be desired, but Wallace has top-10 equity for the cost.

 

Favorite Play Each Section:

$10,000+ - Jordan Spieth
$9,000+ - Stephan Jaeger
$8,000+ - Adam Schenk
$7,000+ - Peter Kuest
$6,000+ - Matt Wallace

 

 

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