RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sanderson Farms Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Country Club of Jackson
7,461 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Bermuda
The Country Club of Jackson is a unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by Donald Ross, the 18-hole layout used for the event was recreated by John Fought and Mike Gogel in 2008 but still keeps many of the Ross principles you would expect out of one of his facilities. Players will be required to work the ball in both directions off the tee, and the positioning and undulation of the greens will force golfers to hit their shots to the proper side of the fairway - although it is worth noting that missing the short grass isn't what causes a GIR decrease.
We see players hit the fairway here only 54% of the time, meaning a bomb-and-gouge mentality might be the way to go if you can position your first shot on the correct side of the land, but the peculiar nature of the layout comes down to this being a venue that highlights a five-hole stretch and diminishes most of the upside elsewhere. The last six winners have averaged around 20-under during their victory, which highlights a birdie fest, but it is crucial to figure out where the scoring is coming from for the week, and that is where we see an overemphasis placed on the four par-fives and singular par-four 15th.
A staggering 47.5% of the winning score output has been created on the four par-five holes alone, and we get an additional 11.5% on that aforementioned par-four 15th that measures only 330 yards. That total of 59% of the projected allotment of production is notable since it means 27% of the holes will account for nearly 60% of the winning score, but it doesn't mean other ranges won't still play of the utmost importance. Five holes have a 20% bogey or worse rate, so I don't mind diving deeper into par-four scoring from 450-500 yards to account for that, but we are essentially looking at par-three average and the lengthier par-four holes for being the sections we want to avoid mistakes, and then trying to pinpoint golfers in other areas that can take advantage of the easier chances at the track.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | CC Jackson | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 283 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 54% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 69% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 61% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.54 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
SG Total Easy Scoring (10%)
Weighted SG Total (25%)
SG: Total Donald Ross (10%)
SG: Total Fast Bermuda (10%)
Weighted Par-Three + Par-Four (15%)
Short Par-Four + Par-Five Birdie or Better (30%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group:
Sam Burns ($10,700) - It will take an abundance of popularity hitting Sam Burns before Thursday (25%+) for me to bypass him at this price tag. Sure, I almost certainly believe he will be the highest projected owned golfer on the board, but if we are fading, it is strictly because of an ownership-based standpoint. Not all chalk is bad, and the $10,700 price tag is too reduced for me to bypass the upside. Homa started the year going back-to-back, and it shouldn't be a surprise if Burns accomplishes a similar feat. The American ranks inside the top-five of my model for strokes gained total on easy courses, fast Bermuda and an overall combination of metrics to mimic the Country Club of Jackson, and he is also number one inside my model for weighted par-three + par-four and birdie or better percentage on par-five holes.
Sahith Theegala ($10,400) - It is hard to be overly nit-picky on any golfer in this range since the four all rank inside the top eight in multiple iterations of my sheet, but Sahith Theegala will likely be one of my two least preferred choices from the $10,000 section. That doesn't mean he is out of consideration for my player pool, but let's see where his popularity checks in come Wednesday night since much of his intrigue will come from the potential leverage he may create. Theegala looks dominant from the critical scoring chances he will be presented at the Sanderson Farms, but he is the only golfer to rank outside the top 30 in three or more of the six metrics I ran for the track, and we see it enhanced even further with his four individual occurrences outside that range.
J.T. Poston ($10,200) - Early ownership projections have J.T. Poston inside the top 10 players on the slate, but I have a hard time believing that to be the case for a few reasons. For starters, I think Sahith Theegala catches more steam as the week goes on from within the industry, but maybe more importantly than that, I can't imagine most playing Poston over Henley when push comes to shove. My model loves Poston's potential fit for the Country Club of Jackson, which we see with top-four placement totals in every iteration of the sheet, and if the irons can be respectable for a few days, he is one of only eight golfers to rank inside the top-25 for Bermuda putting + expected scoring at the five easiest chances of the week.
Russell Henley ($10,100) - From a statistical perspective, how can the top-ranked golfer on my model not be a bonafide shoo-in to make my builds? If you have been in the space long enough, you will know the words "high popularity" and "Henley chalk" are not conducive to long-term success, but the decision will come down to how extreme the totals are on Wednesday. At sub-13 percent, I am intrigued, but his volatility grades as the most boom-or-bust of the four, meaning his chances for a missed cut should be heightened in your mind.
As of Monday:
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Denny McCarthy ($9,900) - We know my model is rarely a fan of Denny McCarthy, so his 24th-place mark is quite impressive if you want to get technical. And while I won't be as loud in my stance that the American is a fade as I generally am for a given event, I still don't love this price tag at $9,900. If you want to consider McCarthy for cash-game builds, go for it, but as the sixth-priced golfer on the board, I want more perceived upside. Somewhere inside the top-30 does seem like a fair projection for where he finishes, but give me the upside on a golfer like Davis Riley for half the ownership and $900 less.
Sebastian Munoz ($9,700) - Sebastian Munoz will experience a Presidents Cup and past champion of the tournament boost, but he is the first golfer we have talked about so far that I have no interest in playing in any capacity. I don't believe he historically scores well enough on par-fives to warrant this price tag, and I typically like fading these spots where course history factors are causing a shift in price. In my opinion, there are better routes to consider.
Taylor Montgomery ($9,600) - All I have heard in the space on Monday is how Taylor Montgomery gained 11 strokes with his flat stick at the Fortinet. Is that a positive? Of course not. But if everyone wants to bypass him at this salary because of an aberrational performance with the putter, I will bite on the upside of the UNLV product at his current 11 percent mark. You can leave it to me to promote a fellow alum, but I can't wait to see him next week at the Shriners because of the skillset that he did possess on the Korn Ferry Tour. Maybe you could argue that TPC Summerlin is a better fit, but Country Club of Jackson isn't a venue that demands much outside of par-five scoring and putting - two categories my model has him inside the top-10 in the field.
Scott Stallings ($9,500) -I have a similar mentality on Scott Stallings as I do with Denny McCarthy. The floor does feel higher than some in this range, but I am not sure how much I trust the upside when paying this price. I would be more inclined to get around that sentiment if the ownership wasn't trending over 15%, but it is one of those spots where public intrigue matters on a golfer lacking high-end win equity marks. I don't think Stallings will burn your lineup(s), but I also don't know what we are looking at in MME contests regarding his potential to win the event.
Keegan Bradley ($9,400) - I will take Keegan Bradley's upside and lack of popularity over Denny McCarthy, but I'll back the flatter numbers across the board of Taylor Montgomery. We can't play everyone, and the fact that putting does matter here might hurt Bradley's chances.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,300) -Christiaan Bezuidenhout doesn't score the way you would want on par-fives, but we have seen the ease of those particular holes present openings in the past for golfers that possess a high-end metric. For Bezuidenhout, that is his putter, which makes him an MME leverage option. I am not sure I will officially get to him because of the lackluster totals elsewhere, but let's see if he can drop below five percent before deciding.
Emiliano Grillo ($9,200) -If Emiliano Grillo is among the more popular choices on the board, I will shift any exposure to him for cash-game lineups. As has been the case with multiple players in this range, the win equity is less than the price tag would suggest.
Davis Riley ($9,000) -We want to quickly anoint the new stars from the Korn Ferry Tour and put them in these higher-priced ranges, but let's not forget about last year's standout. Riley's ball-striking is a perfect fit for the Country Club of Jackson, and he is one of only two golfers that ranks inside the top 40 of every metric I looked into for the track. The other is the top-ranked statistical fit in Russell Henley, and I believe Riley is playable in all game types. Some combination of Burns, Poston, Montgomery and Riley will be a popular start, but all still feel under-owned.
As of Monday:
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
My early numbers don't love the $8,000 section, but I will run the model a few more times before I do my Wednesday DraftKings article to discuss my official plays. The upside of Adam Hadwin, Sepp Straka, Gary Woodland and Seamus Power will keep the four on my shortlist of golfers I am playing, and I do like how Thomas Detry is projecting. I did regress some of my totals for anyone that didn't have a full onslaught of data, but Detry remained in his robust territory of the top-five.
Taylor Moore and Trey Mullinax are fine course fits, but I don't want anything to do with them if they are going to rank inside the top five of popularity. That will be a situation to monitor more of the next few days.
As of Monday:
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.
Some of my favorite of that list would be: Dean Burmester ($7,600), Mark Hubbard ($7,400), Alex Smalley ($7,500), Brandon Wu ($7,000), Martin Laird ($7,100), Patrick Rodgers ($7,100), Michael Gligic ($7,100), Hayden Buckley ($7,000), although I will be taking a deeper dive on everyone.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field, but this condensed things down nicely as a first run.
Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:
$10,000 - Sam Burns ($10,700)
$9,000 - Davis Riley ($9,000)
$8,000 - Thomas Detry ($8,800)
$7,000 - Dean Burmester ($7,600)
$6,000 - Rory Sabbatini ($6,900)
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