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Another weekend, another UFC event. UFC Saudi Arabia marks a significant milestone in the UFC's expansion into the Middle East. This historic move underscores the UFC's global expansion and heralds a new era of combat sports in the Middle East. For the first time, Saudi MMA fans will experience the adrenaline-pumping action of a UFC Fight Night live at the Kingdom Arena. With each fighter eyeing victory and a path to glory, the stage is set for an unforgettable showdown that will leave fans on the edge of their seats.
Headlining the event will be former UFC middleweight champion Robert Whittaker facing the young and hungry Ikram Aliskerov, who is in an absolutely tearing 7-0 run (UFC and other promotions combined). We will also have No. 3 heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich and No. 5 Alexander Volkov in the co-main event and both will try and keep building their resumes on their way to a title shot. Kelvin Gastelum is scheduled for a three-round welterweight bout against Daniel Rodriguez.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Saudi Arabia: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov on 06/22/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Robert Whittaker, $7000 - vs. Ikram Aliskerov
Whittaker was initially scheduled to fight Khamzat Chimaev but Chimaev backed out of the fight. Aliskerov accepted this fight about a week ago after Chimaev was forced to withdraw due to an illness. Whittaker, known for his striking and resilience, faces a formidable opponent in Aliskerov, whose striking, wrestling, and aggressive style have made him a nightmare for every single opponent he faced. This bout promises to be a thrilling clash of styles where the winner will likely be in the conversation for the next title shot.
Fight week is heating up 🔥#UFCSaudiArabia open workouts are a wrap!#RiyadhSeason | @RiyadhSeason pic.twitter.com/Zni4hD8Hh3
— UFC (@ufc) June 19, 2024
Former middleweight champion Whittaker got back in the win column his last time out, taking a unanimous decision win over former title challenger, Paulo Costa. He has seen the judges' scorecards in eight of the last 10, with the knockout losses to Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya being the outliers. Although he stumbled on a way to earning himself another title shot by losing to du Plessis, Whittaker remains a top contender in the UFC middleweight division, consistently ranked among the best fighters in the weight class. He has defeated absolute monsters like Darren Till, Kelvin Gastelum, Jacare Souza, Derek Brunson, Uriah Hall, Brad Tavares, and Yoel Romero (twice).
It's interesting how drastically things can change in this sport. A week ago, Aliskerov was supposed to face off against Antonio Trocoli. Now, he is set to face the biggest test of his career, former middleweight champion Whittaker. If he can score a win against Whittaker in Riyadh, he’ll thrust himself from an unranked newcomer to a legitimate top-five contender. Aliskerov hasn’t seen the scorecards since 2018. He's had two UFC fights and one on the Contender Series, finishing all three fights in the first round. The Russian fighter has the sportsbooks spooked, which may explain why Aliskerov opened as a mere +110 underdog.
You can throw all the numbers regarding Aliskerov out the window because his entire run with the UFC has lasted just over four minutes. The interesting thing about this fight is that Aliskerov has already gone through the weight-cut process a week ago, and now, he's supposed to do it all over again. Another thing about Aliskerov is that he's been preparing for a three-round fight. On the other hand, Whittaker has the five-round experience and only gets better as the fight goes on.
Chances are that this late-notice booking is going to impact Aliskerov more heavily. If this fight goes to later rounds, I would absolutely give the edge to Whittaker. Aliskerov's grappling might present some problems for the former champion. However, we have seen Romero trying to take Whittaker down and control him, but Whittaker's takedown defense is very good.
Whittaker is going to present some problems for Aliskerov who, as I said, doesn't have the best cardio on Saturday because of the combination of the double weight cut and the travel. Even though he has shown promise, backing Aliskerov in this fight is risky simply because we have never seen him against anyone even halfway decent, except for Chimaev early in their careers. I think that Whittaker is going to walk out victorious. My prediction is that Whittaker finishes Aliskerov in the later rounds.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kelvin Gastelum, $8900 - vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Despite being 2-6 in his past eight fights, Kelvin Gastelum still gets booked to fight UFC prospects and contenders. Once predicted to be the next welterweight champion, Gastelum moved up to middleweight after missing weight twice at 170 pounds. After a short stint at middleweight, Gastelum decided to move back down to welterweight in his most recent fight against Sean Brady. Unfortunately for the 32-year-old, he was submitted by Brady in the third round.
Just like Gastelum, Daniel Rodriguez hasn't looked the best in his last few performances. He has lost two fights in a row to Neil Magny and Ian Machado Garry. Since he signed with the UFC, Rodriguez hasn't been in a boring fight. He started his UFC career off hot by winning seven of his first eight bouts. Rodriguez is absorbing punches at a rate of 5.28 strikes per minute. However, he’s top in the division with 7.55 significant strikes landed per minute.
Now, there's a problem. Gastelum admitted he’s having difficulties cutting down to welterweight for his fight against Rodriguez The 32-year-old Gastelum has struggled with weight cuts in the past, missing weight for some of his fights, which has affected his preparation and performance. There is a chance that this fight is not going to be a welterweight at all. If Gastelum doesn't manage to lose enough weight, the fight will likely take place at catchweight or even middleweight.
Even though Gastelum's gone 2-6 in his last eight bouts, those losses he suffered weren't just to some random fighters. In those six fights, he came up short against Israel Adesanya, Darren Till, Jack Hermansson, Robert Whittaker, Jared Cannonier, and Sean Brady. This will be Gastelum's 22nd UFC fight and D-rod's 11th.
With both fighters coming off a loss, this bout is crucial for them to get back to their winning ways. This is a fight between two guys who rely on their boxing and both fighters are close to getting released by the UFC. Even though he said that he's going to have a problem with the weight cut, I'm still picking Gastelom to win this fight. Prepare yourselves for a striking battle. Gastelum is known to be a durable fighter and Rodriguez hasn't really demonstrated one-punch knockout power. I predict that Gastelum is going to win this fight by unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sergei Pavlovich, $8700 - vs. Alexander Volkov
In the co-main event, we have a heavyweight showdown between No. 3 heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich and No. 5 Alexander Volkov. Volkov has been on a three-fight winning streak while Pavlovich will try to bounce back from the loss he suffered to current interim heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall. This fight between two of the best heavyweights in the world will likely determine who will be next in line for a title shot.
Prior to losing to Aspinall, Pavlovich was tearing through the heavyweight division and won six straight fights via first-round knockout. Volkov has also been on a tear, winning his last three fights via stoppage. In those three fights, Volkov has defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexandr Romanov, and most recently, Tai Tuivasa. Even though he hasn't been able to win fights against top dogs, Volkov is overall one of the sport’s best heavyweights, but he hasn't been given the same respect as some other fighters ranked above or below him.
Known for his heavy hands and knockout power, Pavlovich is a serious threat in the heavyweight division. He has a background in combat sambo, and even though he hasn't shown his wrestling skills that much, be certain that he has those abilities in his arsenal. On the other hand, Volkov is considered to be one of the best strikers in the heavyweight. Volkov is also the more accurate striker, landing 57 percent of his significant strikes versus Pavlovich’s 48 percent while Pavlovich has knockout power on his side.
Considered to be a technical striker, Volkov has improved his cardio and grappling. Before his loss to Aspinall, Pavlovich had looked like a destroyer and was predicted to be the next heavyweight champion. The key to victory for Pavlovich is in pressuring Volkov. Volkov likes to fight on the outside and pick his opponents apart. Pavlovich needs to get on the inside and start landing bombs.
This heavyweight outcome will be determined by which man can manipulate the fight to his favor. While he was unsuccessful in his attempt at interim gold, his knockout power remains the deciding factor. That being said, I'm going with the favorite, Pavlovich, on this one. Volkov has already admitted that he had problems in sparring sessions against Pavlovich because of his reach and his power. My prediction is that Pavlovich is going to land a knockout blow within three rounds.
