RADIO
We're back to the regularly scheduled full-field stroke play format on the PGA Tour this coming week for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson tournament. This is the time of the year when the Tour schedule can be a grind, but rest assured we will have you prepared and covered if you want to be ready to bet on the CJ Cup when the odds drop on Monday morning.
This tournament will once again be held at TPC Craig Ranch, a short and easy course for Tour professionals located in McKinney, Texas. Be prepared to see unusually low scores and birdies in bunches at the relatively nondescript course just north of the Dallas area. This will be the fourth consecutive year that this venue has been the host of this event and we are starting to hone in on the skill attributes that are most correlated to success.
As always with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the incoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field to project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top 10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why.
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#10. Adam Scott
I have spent the last three years awaiting the tournament when Adam Scott rounds back into form and captures another victory late in his career. I'm still waiting, but weeks like this give me hope. Scott finished 8th place at this event last season and is coming into this week off back-to-back top 22 finishes this season.
He's finally settled in with his broomstick putter and it has been a huge positive for Scott this season. He ranks top-10 in the field in strokes gained putting. Scott still has plenty of pop in the bat to take advantage of his length and turn this into a pitch and putt. If he can rekindle his youth, this is a great chance for him to get another win in Texas.
Texas History Books 📖⛳️
The only player to win four different PGA Tour events that were held in the state of Texas is...
Adam Scott 🇦🇺 pic.twitter.com/uMjJkzTOVL
— Joe I (@TourPicks) April 1, 2024
#9. Si Woo Kim
Si Woo Kim has had the ball on a string with his driver and his irons lately, ranking inside the top-10 in the field this week in strokes gained OTT and APP over the last 30 rounds played. He is much more well-rounded player than he gets credit for. His ability to gain off the tee despite being in the bottom tier in distance speaks to his accuracy and consistency with the driver.
Kim fired a final round 63 last year, only to lose by 1 stroke to Jason Day in this event. Kim is another player who has had success in Texas during his career and should set up well on a course like TPC Craig Ranch. He's been searching for a hot putter to pair with his ball-striking and he gained +3.4 strokes putting at the 2023 CJ Cup, a number Kim has only bested once in the past calendar year.
#8. KH Lee
Full disclosure; I bet KH Lee and Michael Kim last week at the Zurich so I followed him closely all week. He was the better partner. It's been a year marred by inconsistency for Lee but I have noticed that he has been much better OTT recently and is trending nicely. He gained strokes OTT in every event during the Florida swing and added another +2.5 a few weeks ago at the Houston Open.
All that aside, the man kind of owns TPC Craig Ranch. It's the home of both of Lee's victories on the PGA Tour where he won in back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022. Lee has shot a combined score of -62 under par in the last three years while the event has been hosted here, gaining a ridiculous 30+ strokes on the field.
Congratulations to our back to back champion @khlee_golf who shot a career low 63 to jump in front of the field and win it all!#MoreThanAGame pic.twitter.com/8GQc0DzW39
— THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (@cjbyronnelson) May 15, 2022
#7. Byeong Hun An
Make no mistake about it, this golf tournament is all about making birdies. Players are likely going to need to get to 25 under par if they want to win the CJ Cup. This particular niche has become a specialty of Byeong Hun An who leads the field in birdie or better percentage this season.
An is a player we have come to trust from a ballstriking perspective. Since regaining his Tour card, he has been one of the best in pro golf. Like some of the other names on this list, he struggles to find a reliable putter, ranking a mere 115th in the field. That said, a T14 finish at this event last season coupled with his impressive 2024 form should make him a definite contender to finally break through for victory.
#6. Min Woo Lee
If I'm being completely honest, I still struggle with where Min Woo Lee falls on the spectrum of PGA Tour players. At times, the talent looks astronomical, but it's hard to argue against the season being a disappointment as a whole with such high expectations. The young Australian has plenty of fan flair and nearly made a run at victory during the Cognizant Classic.
At the time, it felt like a giant step forward. However, since then he's failed to put the pieces back together. He did finish T22 at The Masters which was the last time we saw him play, maybe my expectations were just too high. He absolutely crushes it off the tee and if he can turn his power into birdies, this could be a nice event for him to continue to gain confidence on the PGA Tour level.
#5. Stephan Jaeger
The only player to be Scottie Scheffler in the last seven weeks is Stephan Jaeger. He did so in dramatic fashion and it all went down in the state of Texas a few weeks back when he won the Houston Open. Jeager is a particularly well-rounded player who seems to be coming into his own on the PGA Tour level week-to-week.
He's been amazing around the greens this season, ranking 4th in the field. He'll bring that to the table this week and combine it with his ability to nail mid-range putts in the heart of the cup. He's third in the field in made percentage on putts from 8-15 ft. That is a great skill set to have in a birdie fest that is going to yield ample opportunities if you can pay them off.
Stock Up 📈
Stephan Jaeger
Punched his ticket to Augusta with a win in Houston
Was very impressive with his putter, gaining 6 strokes on the greens
Has been playing great golf all season in 2024
Jaegerbomb is here to stay on the PGA Tour
— Josh Segal (@Josh_Segal8) April 1, 2024
#4. Jason Day
In the number 4 spot on the rankings, we bring on the defending champion, Jason Day. He completed his long journey back to the winner's circle here last year after a five-year winning drought on the PGA Tour. Day won this event last season gaining strokes all around, but really dominated on approach where he gained +6.3 strokes with his irons for the week.
He'll have some added scheduling requirements this week as Champion, but he should carry some confidence over from the RBC Heritage where he just finished in a tie for 18th place. I would have ranked him higher had it not been for his slipping numbers recently on approach where Day has lost to the field in five straight events. He's putting and chipping it great, so if he can dial back in his irons at TPC Craig Ranch, then he can once again contend to win.
#3. Will Zalatoris
Will Zalatoris has been showing us glimpses of the ballstriking phenom that he was when he first burst inside the ropes on the PGA Tour. His world-class iron play has been back. Zalatoris has gained strokes on approach in all nine events that he has played this season.
His last six starts have been particularly good, resulting in finishes of second, fourth, and ninth most recently at Augusta National. He is still bleeding strokes with the Putter, but a move back to Texas bent grass should be a welcome site for the struggling Zalatoris on the greens. Can he go low enough to win here given the scoring conditions are super easy? That's the question.
#2. Tom Kim
The player that I am hoping to get a decent betting price on when the odds are released is Tom Kim. I think he has found what he has been looking for with his iron play. It had been a struggle all season until something clicked at the Masters and he gained +5.6 on approach. He followed that up with a +2.5 approach week at the RBC Heritage. Those are two of his best three starts for the entire season, and they both came in April.
He'll enter this week as the highest-ranked player in the field based on the OWGR, for possibly the first time in his entire career. We know Tom Kim has no problem going low and winning a birdie fest. He had made his home in Texas and given his newly found confidence with his irons, he should be poised and ready to win the CJ Cup. Stay hot...Dallas natives!
First player to congratulate Scottie Scheffler: Dallas' own, Tom Kim pic.twitter.com/nYXlbhW3He
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) April 14, 2024
#1. Jordan Spieth
Like most weeks, it's insanely difficult to rank Jordan Spieth. Nothing is predictable when it comes to Spieth, which is part of the reason that I think he is going to win the CJ Cup. After lackluster disappointing performances at The Masters (MC) and The Heritage (T39), of course, he would come out and pile up birdies at TPC Craig Ranch...right?!
Spieth is back in the field for this event after skipping it in 2023, and we'll now have another Dallas native at the top of the odds board. When he did decide to play in 2022 and 2021, Spieth finished 2nd and 9th. He looked great, in the most Spiethian way possible at the Valero a few weeks back where he finished top-10. I'll go out on a bit of a fragile limb and make him #1 in my power rankings for the CJ Cup.
Best of luck this week Rotoballer family!
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